Morgan thus predicted that corn prices are poised to fall, which will in turn threaten farmers' purchasing power. Farm equipment sales appear to have already peaked, the financial firm said.
The shares didn't exactly crash the day of the downgrade, but have steadily slipped and given up the rather impressive gains made during the first full week of trading this year.
In the short run, prices for commodities, such as corn and wheat, and the general economic uncertainty that dominates the headlines will likely keep a lid on the shares for a while, but investors would do well to keep an eye on the big picture. That picture has a very bright horizon.
While 2009 will be a challenging year to be sure, Deere boasts an unrelenting focus on holding down costs and aligning factory production with the retail marketplace. In 2008, Deere invested $1.4 billion in capital projects and acquisitions in support of its growth initiatives, including farm machinery expansions in the United States and Brazil, which will help meet the world's growing demand for advanced tractors and combines.
The company also implemented plans for construction equipment joint ventures in key countries such as China and India, and made a significant financial commitment to new engine technology in response to increasingly demanding environmental standards.
Chairman and CEO, Robert W. Lane believes that powerful demographic trends should bring great benefits to Deere down the road.
The combination of worldwide population growth and improved living standards has led to greater demand for food and energy, including biofuels like ethanol. Global consumption of wheat, corn and soybeans has increased by 20% in this decade alone, he says.
Further, increased demand for shelter and infrastructure support a healthy outlook for the company's other businesses. For the first time, Deere saw more than half of its agricultural equipment sales come from markets outside the United States and Canada in the November quarter.
Deere prides itself on generating strong levels of economic profit, or shareholder value added (SVA). SVA reflects the company's determination to invest in products, projects and businesses that consistently yield returns in excess of an underlying cost of capital.
SVA increased last year to $1.7 billion. In each of the last five years, SVA has been more than twice as high as in any year prior to the period.
Deere is a solid, well-run company, but it is not immune to the economic ills of the world. But a strong brand and innovative products should ensure that long-term holders will be rewarded in time.
Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to InvestorPlace.com.










