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Before the call: McDonald's (MCD) expected to report higher Q4 earnings

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Fast food giant McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) is going to be reporting its fourth quarter results Monday, and investor's are going to be watching this one closely as McDonald's has so far been one of the rare blue chip stocks that has been able to perform well in the current economic slowdown.

While the market has been pretty rocky for most companies, McDonald's has continued to hold up very well, and over the past 3 months the stock has risen by 6.5%. If you look at the last 12 months, the stock has been even more impressive, showing a rise of 13.9%, which any investor would have loved to have over the past year.

Going into Monday's earnings report, the company is expected to show earnings of $0.83 per share. For its fourth quarter 2007, McDonald's put up earnings of $0.73 per share, which beat analyst estimates by 2 pennies.

Taking a look at same store sales in the quarter, it would appear that it should be another strong quarter for the company. In October, same store sales were up by 8.2%, and the company followed that up by showing same store sales growth of 7.7% for the month of November.



While the deflationary times that we are seeing has been helping McDonald's over the past year, another big reason why the company was able to do so well in 2007 was the weak dollar which helped its overseas business. McDonald's is as popular overseas as it is here in America, and around 43% of its total revenues come from Europe and the U.K., where the euro and the British pound were strong against the dollar during the first part of 2008. That is not so much the case these days, and as the dollar strengthens, McDonald's overseas revenues will start to shrink.

The company has stated that 10% drops in these foreign currencies could relate to an 8 or 9 cent difference in the company's bottom line. It will be interesting to hear how the strengthening dollar has impacted the company. The dollar is expected to remain strong against these currencies through 2009 as Europe continues to deal with its own deepening recession.

Overall, I expect to see another good quarter from the company, with the only possible weakness at this point being its overseas revenues. On Monday morning, we will see just how hard the company was hit by the rising dollar. The last time that the company was not able to at least match analysts estimates was all the way back in January 2005 when it missed its fourth quarter '04 number. Will it continue its strong run, or is the stock poised to tumble? We will find out on Monday.

Here is a chart of the stock to illustrate just how well it has done over the past 12 months:



Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 08:31 PM

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