"It aint' over 'til it's over." And that ain't now.
I have used this expression all too often in the past few months -- a reaction to the oversupply of market optimists who have abandoned reason and what they learned in third-grade math.
The way I see it, the economy is in worse shape than people think, earnings will be worse than expected, and the stock market is not heading up any time soon.
Here are seven reasons why you'd be a fool to think differently (click on each item for a more complete analysis):
1. The housing crisis isn't over.
3. Credit markets remain frozen.
4. The banks are falling apart.
5. The consumer has stopped spending.
6. IT spending is flat and falling.
7. The government is grasping at air.
Any one of these points should be enough to make investors cautious, but taken together they add up to some very bad news for markets across the globe.
Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.
What Happened When Alex Kenjeev Paid His Student Loan in Cash
Facebook's IPO Debacle, Day 3: Un-Friended and Dis-Liked on Wall…


Reader Comments (Page 4 of 4)
1-29-2009 @ 4:43PM
bob bonney said...
Obama should immediatly suspend all individual income tax for 2008. Do not even require that anyone file a return. People keep their money instead of sending it to Washington to add all kinds of bureaucratic costs to some stimulus package before they let it trickle down to the people. People pay off bills, loans, mortages, buy cars, spend the money or buy stocks. It's simple and as immediate as is imaginable.
1-29-2009 @ 5:11PM
jack said...
the IBD has screwed this nation, before he even took office. Dow 5000 here we come. for those of you who didn't prepare, you're in deep do-do. 18 months ago I took all my stocks & put them into money market. nope... I don't pay taxes, even though I work with the same rules as you do. IBD means insignificant black dope.
1-29-2009 @ 6:36PM
tfarnon said...
The author is probably right--and I don't think we've hit bottom yet. I don't think we will hit bottom, level off, and start to turn up until 2010. I go with a little bit of "gut" and a little bit of experience to make my prediction. When I have a good job, I invest and save as much as I can, and invest fairly conservatively. When I sense that my job is getting shaky and the job market is getting tigher, I stop investing. I left my last job and stopped investing and saving in August 2007, which turns out to be right around the time the recession officially started. I left that job because I could see the signs of impending cutbacks, and because I wanted to go back to school anyways. I'd simply been waiting for the right time. I'm riding out this downturn on my savings, and keeping busy with a full course load for a new (but related--and better) career. I figure that I'll have the new, better career and be settled in my new position by September 2010, just as the economy starts to pick up again. And I'll be right back to adding to my investment and savings balances. This strategy has served me well for almost 30 years, or all of my working life to date.
1-29-2009 @ 7:09PM
Peter Isola said...
Ballot Box Revolution! Throw out all the crooks, that is ALL Democrats and Republicans.
1-29-2009 @ 9:24PM
Roger said...
Have you ever gotten a job from someone on welfare? The small business owners (rich?) provide the most jobs and are the only hope we have. Naw-- we have no hope the house negro is going to finish this country.
1-30-2009 @ 12:18AM
goldennorse82 said...
Gee nothing mentioned about ceo's and exucatives taking huge golden parachutes. Its called greed and the American people are tired of being screwed by these greedy sob's and their own government.
1-30-2009 @ 1:35AM
Seven said...
Well, we sure have whined about all this mess. When and what are we going to do about it? I have begun my revolt. I'm in a position to refuse to buy an American made car, borrow money from a bailed out bank, and I'm starting to question the credit rating of any business that solicits my business. I have CASH and have not paid a dime in interest in over eight years. With a 784-840 FICO I can be selective. Some folks aren't so lucky. They need those of us who can to fight back I've had it! And BTW has anyone thought about the non-policing of the home and car insurance companies? Their credit ratings are dropping too. It's about time for them to yell for a bailout. If my insurance company does that they will be out of my life too. FIGHT BACK, Damn it!
1-30-2009 @ 4:07AM
kyiron said...
enjoy the taste of barium in the chemtrails as your tax money pays to spray poison in the skies .enjoy your loss of freedom as military combs the streets.and mabey even enjoy a femma camp.mabey enjoy your micro chip implant in the future.as the crooks the few elite have stolen the wealth and live it up.we live as slaves to them.ya change we need right ,welcome to the new world order.this was all planed already!wake up america,and you think im nuts as you dont want to think this could happen ,because you are brained washed.into believing the lies you were told.
1-30-2009 @ 5:49AM
john said...
Eventually things stop working. its no mistake that when you move jobs overseas, the money got send overseas, when you have unfair trade relations with the rest of the world, you cannot manufacture profit with products that you cannot send overseas to sell. eventually you get a crash, until things change. Its just nice to know that the foreign investors that have done unfair trade practices lost money too. you can have it both ways.
1-30-2009 @ 10:44PM
dslover720 said...
Martin, your a genius! Good to hear from you.