The consumer spending component of the economy was 70% of GDP, but it is shrinking fast and it will not come back to former levels for a long time -- maybe ever.
Unemployment and fear of unemployment are killing spending. I believe we will see double-digit unemployment before we see 5% again.
Another drag on spending is a lack of credit, as credit cards get pulled back, home-equity lines are withdrawn and people realize that buying the next piece of breakable stuff made in China may not be the wisest thing to do with their money right now.
At the end of last year, the U.S. savings rate went up for the first time since 1952, and saving money does not repair economic damage -- right now, it aggravates that damage.
Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.
Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.



Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-24-2009 @ 12:35PM
bluesno9 said...
These comments are all fine, and by the way, a tremendous effort in furthering the lack of confidence in the American public with the economic situation is this country. No one argues we are in a deep state of concern but continuing on with this kind of commentary only contributes to shaky confidence throughout the country. There are many counter arguments to all 7 points.... consumer speding has actually improved recently, the thought that we will "never" see spening again is more than short-sighted (anyone believe that we will all of a sudden be a country of savers?)..read some history books, will never happen, spending will renew at a more rapid pace than ever, money market accounts contain north of $4 trillion (highest level EVER) and household balance sheets contain more cash than ever as well. Smart folks will one day realize that the non-existent interest rates they currently get on these accounts will not be enough and (albeit slowly) this money will seek a new place. In addition, bank failures are nowhere near the level of the great depression...most of the BIG banks are in trouble, many smaller banks are just fine. And, if the government actually gets it right and uses the TARP for the right reason or gets rid of the ridiculous mark to market idiocy banks will start to look a whole lot better and start lending again. The argument by the way for abolishing mark to market (for those who will sit there and debate it) is....ask yourself a simple question....does your mortgage company call you at 5:00 every night and ask you what your assets are worth and then decide whether or not you can keep your mortgage? Why do we ask the banks to do the same thing...just because there is no "market" for some of these securities right now does not mean they are worthless or aren't going to be worth a significant amount in a year or two when things do actually get better. I could continue on but.....have to go reposition my portfolio for armageddon.
1-25-2009 @ 10:36AM
Linda said...
BLUESNO9:
In reading your rebuttle, I can surmise you work in the industry, and shame on you! You will do anything to push people back into the market so that you can turn a buck. Well, people are finally becoming smarter than the investment advisors that encouraged them to remain in the stock market, even as it plunged. People are taking control, and will continue to do such.
1-25-2009 @ 11:33AM
minenex said...
people stopped spending. loosing jobs,and loss of trust with banks and goverment.why would you give your money to con man?