Oil prices have come down over $100 a barrel in the last six months, and so have oil stocks. How many people out there would have lost their house, not due to the reasons we've become accustomed, but due to betting the wrong way on oil? How many out there thought oil would stay near $147 a barrel rather than drop to the mid $30s in six months? I admit I might have been one of those people. Oil is currently trading in the mid $40s.I have been paying about $2 a gallon for premium gasoline in Southern California -- sometimes a little higher, sometimes a little lower -- but a far cry from the $4.85 I paid in the summer. I can't even believe my eyes or my wallet relief. Five dollar gas is but a memory. We should all keep that in mind because we all know it is coming back to a gas station near you. We just don't know when.
This week's cover story in Barron's, "Big Oil's a Buy" (subscription required), highlights seven companies with varying degrees of support. The author, Dimitra Defotis, discusses companies with depressed stock prices, which may go lower; and with: relatively solid dividends; the possibility that mergers and acquisitions might be on the horizon; and stock buy-backs options. The four key stocks Defotis likes are XOM, TOT, BP and PBR. For example, XOM was chosen because of superior management and stacks of cash; PBR because of its reserves. Defotis questions the debt levels and access to new reserves of COP and RDS.
Oil & Gas companies mentioned in the story include:
- Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) Yield 2% -- USA
- Conoco Phillips (NYSE: COP) Yield 3.9% -- USA
- Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) Yield 3.7% USA
- Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE: RDS.A) Yield 6.6% -- Netherlands
- BP p.l.c. ADS (NYSE: BP) Yield 7.5% -- Great Britain
- Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) Yield 4.4% -- Brazil
- Total S.A. (NYSE: TOT) Yield 6.25% -- France
- Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) Yield 1%
- Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) Yield 3.37% -- USA
- Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) Yield 2.39% -- USA
The global economy, which is in a fragile situation now, will recover eventually. When it does, will it be walloped again by higher oil prices before it really gets going? Will oil be the first commodity to become inflated by the rampant expansion of government deficit spending of a colossal scale?
We seem safe near-term in 2009, but after that there is little confidence, with disagreement among oil bulls and bears. Most prognosticators have been wrong this past year as speculators drove the price of oil up and then down wildly.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC.



