Cramer on BloggingStocks: How do the analysts not get this?


TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says of course the numbers for the industrials are too high.

What's with these analysts? Just like the fiasco of bank earnings last year, where the analysts kept their numbers high in the face of obvious losses and dislocations, the analysts are once again wild high in their pitching.

Did anyone really think that Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) could earn $4 or $5 in this environment? Did anyone think that Du Pont (NYSE: DD) (Cramer's Take) wasn't banking on a much better quarter than was possible? Why can't these analysts extrapolate the horrors of a worldwide recession and take numbers for these industrials down to reasonable and doable benchmarks?


I am reading through the Du Pont quarter, and it's so obviously terrible that, well, couldn't it have been obvious before the quarter was reported? Do we have to see the minus 3, 4, 5 GDP numbers before we recognize that even the best of the industrials can't come near what they thought they could do when they reported the previous quarter?

To me, it is obvious that business stopped in this country, and the world, post Lehman Brothers -- the logical extension of letting an institution that is Too Big To Fail collapse. The fear is too palpable and the risks too great to take on any new business, whether it be in autos or housing, the breadbaskets of places like Du Pont. Unless the workforce has been radically reduced, a company with those core markets will simply succumb to serious losses until the banking system is fixed and the stimulus worked out.

Oh, and one more thing, for all of the talk that CAT saw this coming, if you go back to the previous quarter, CAT was banking on a strong second half to see itself through, which is why it didn't make the cuts.

Those industrial managers that think we will have a strong second half are dreaming. It is why I like the recession-resistant names -- McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) (Cramer's Take) -- or the accidentally high yielders -- CAT being one of them -- until the crisis passes.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 01:01 PM

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