Hershey beats estimates in Q4, should you taste the stock?


Hershey (NYSE: HSY) reported earnings for the fourth quarter, and investors seemed to think they were rich and delicious. As I was writing this, shares were up 5%. Why were they up so high?

Well, earnings beat estimates. Hershey managed to deliver an adjusted $0.59 per share. Wall Street wanted $0.54, so there you go. Also, that was four pennies better than the previous year's performance. While that was good, it should be noted that Hershey had an overall problematic year, as it saw earnings per share decline a little under 10% to $1.88 per share. Currency changes are hampering sales growth, so Hershey will need to keep marketing activities as strong and efficient as possible. Margins are also being addressed, as management is hunkering down to wring out every conceivable saving in the supply chain.

I think the strength of the stock as of late is interesting. It looks like the whole peanut-butter-scare thing hasn't affected the performance of the shares (remember that Hershey makes Reese's Peanut Butter Cups), and that Wall Street doesn't think it's an issue (I can see that reasoning).

Still, I would imagine that some consumers are still afraid to buy any candy that has peanut butter in it (I know I am, as I mentioned previously), so Hershey will have to educate consumers wherever possible on the safety of its products (Hershey has issued a press release on the subject). Hopefully I'll get my courage back soon and can once again enjoy the occasional Reese's.

As for whether or not to buy the stock, I think, on a short-term basis, Hershey's run-up will need to be digested by the market, so I can't see establishing a position right now. Unless you are simply dollar-cost-averaging every month, I figure waiting for a pullback would be justified. Hershey did well in Q4, but I think it will have a difficult year ahead of it in terms of sales growth and managing the bottom line. Hopefully the confectioner is up to the challenge.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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