Home prices plunge record 18.2% in the past year, Case-Shiller says


Once again, there's little change in the U.S. housing market's downward trend.

Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever in the past year, weighed down by foreclosures, and slack demand from potential home buyers.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 18.2% in November 2008, on a year-over-year basis in, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey (pdf). The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 18% in October, 17.4% in September, and 16.6% in August, each on a year-over-year basis.


Also, every city in the 20-city index registered a decrease in November, on a year-over-year basis.

Further, prices in a 10-city survey plummeted a record 19.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected home prices in the 20-city Case-Shiller survey to decline 18.4% in November 2008 on a year-over-year basis.

The areas with the largest annual percentage declines were: Phoenix, -32-9%, Las Vegas, -31.6%, San Francisco, -30.8%, Miami, 28.7%, Los Angeles, -26.9%, and San Diego, -25.8%.

Further, not one Top 20 metro area experienced a year-over-year increase in home values, as of November 2008. The two that fared the best, Dallas and Charlotte, declined "only" -3.3% and -5.3%, respectively.

Economist Peter Dawson said the November 2008 Case-Shiller data is a status-quo report, but that's bad news because the trend has been decided lower for more than a year. "We're still seeking slack demand near universally," Dawson said. "With fewer buyers in the market due to employment trends, prices are likely to continue to fall in most markets for most of 2009, although we could see a price recovery in selected markets by year's end."

Year-over-year percentage price changes in other major U.S. cities were as follows: New York, -8.6%, Chicago, -12.5%, Boston, -7.4%, Washington, D.C., -19.4%, Atlanta, -11.2%, Denver, -4.3%, and Seattle, -11.2%.

Housing Sector / Economic Analysis: Yet another poor U.S. housing sector statistic, and the sector remains in deep recession. Most economists agree that the U.S. housing sector is far from bottoming, with the earliest recovery seen in late 2009. Further, housing construction and purchases probably will contribute negatively to U.S. GDP for most of the year.
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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 04:01 AM

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