VMware grows grim on 2009

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Over the years, VMware (NYSE: VMW) has posted a sterling growth record. Of course, the main driver is virtualization technology, which improves the productivity of servers and data centers.

And yes, based on VMware's fourth quarter report, the company had another nice showing. Revenues spiked 25% to $515 million (full-year revenue was $1.9 billion, up 42%). No doubt, for a company of VMware's size, this is enviable.

Moreover, VMware has a highly leveraged operating platform. That is, Q4 GAAP operating income came to $313 million, up 33% over the past year.

However, according to the conference call, VMware is certainly facing some headwinds. After all, the financial industry is a key customer base.

In fact, VMware says that Q1 guidance is for a 10% decline in year-over-year revenues to $475 million. Simply put, customers are running scared. So why not postpone big-ticket tech expenditures?

Plus, VMware must deal with competitive pressures. For example, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Citrix (NASDAQ: CTXS) are getting aggressive in the virtualization space.

Actually, VMware is not providing any guidance for 2009. In other words, growth may slow for a couple quarters, which could dampen the stock for awhile. And, so far in today's trading, the stock is down 2% to $21.62.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a free online business valuation tool for small businesses.

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