Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT), which competes with toy makers Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) and JAKKS Pacific Inc. (NASDAQ: JAKK), will be reporting earnings for the fourth quarter on Monday, February 2. This is going to be an exciting one for the market. Why? Well, it was an awful Christmas for retail. If Mattel, a company that thrives on the season, can beat expectations, then investors can maybe feel a little bit better about the market. Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) surprised Wall Street and went beyond expectations during the holiday season, so perhaps there is hope for Mattel.
But I can't say I'd be willing to bet on it. Mattel should earn somewhere around $0.72 per share on the bottom line. That wouldn't be a great number, but it wouldn't be a disaster, either, because in the previous year Mattel delivered $0.76 per share.
Shareholders will be looking to see how the company's brands have been doing. Last time around, American Girls did well, but Barbie wasn't so hot in the third quarter, as this Closing Bell piece from October makes clear. Sales of Barbie had dipped 1% at the time. Also, Mattel missed expectations in Q3. Mattel has a lot of stuff in its portfolio, from Hot Wheels to action figures based on Batman, but I'll tell you, it's very important for the company to keep its core Barbie line strong. I'd argue it's as important as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) keeping its flagship carbonated soda growing. Sure, Coca-Cola has a lot of noncarbonated drinks to lean on, but it's still got a major investment in Coke. Same deal with the iconic doll, it's a huge driver of shareholder value and image. So management had better let us in on any plans for the brand.
Shareholders will also want to evaluate the margins and see how much the company is spending on marketing and promotions. It's got to be difficult striking that balance between promoting the products and keeping an eye on the bottom line. And how has currency been affecting the Mattel story?
Then there are some other issues with Mattel. The whole Bratz litigation has been a fascinating ride, but I'm sure most investors just want it to be fully resolved and over with. It will be interesting to see what comments management might make on this subject. Could Mattel ever properly leverage the controversial dolls?
I'll also want to see how cash flow is faring, and how terrible the company thinks the retail environment will be in the coming year. Does management see toys as a recession-resistant business in 2009? Mattel also needs to evolve and keep up with the digital media world around it. Kids are becoming increasingly enamored of electronics and video games; Mattel's traditional toy lines oftentimes don't seem as cool in comparison. Management should talk to the market about that.
As for the stock, it's trading at an attractive yield, but I wouldn't be buying it ahead of the earnings report. I'll wait to see how the holiday quarter turned out for Mattel. I just don't have a lot of confidence that the toy maker will be able to beat after such a lousy Christmas environment. Hopefully, Mattel can come out ahead, but I'm content sitting on the sidelines.
Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change without notice.










