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The Mouse is caught in recession trap: Should you sell Disney?

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Whoa, what a terrible quarter for Disney (NYSE: DIS)! Forget the magic. There's no magic going on at Disney. For the fiscal first quarter, revenues decreased 8%, earnings per share decreased 29%, operational cash flow decreased 60%, and free cash flow was negative. Decrease, decrease, decrease! Looks like Disney's brands cannot fend off a recession, no question. Sorry, Jonas Brothers and Hannah Montana.

Disney, which competes with Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), CBS (NYSE: CBS), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, earned, after taking out a $0.04 per-share benefit from an investment sale, $0.41 per share. According to my earnings preview, the call was for around $0.52 per share. Well, I thought the Mouse was going to miss, but I think I characterized the potential miss as maybe being on the "slight" side. Yeah, this wasn't a slight miss.

Going through the operating segments, I can tell you that CEO Bob Iger has a lot of work to do. I'm serious, this guy makes millions per year, and he better get off his chair and start leading this company. There is a recession out there to be certain, and it is affecting all parts of the business, but there are things he can do.

As an example, the release mentions that part of the reason for the decline in advertising revenue at ABC is a decline in ratings. There's obviously work to be done at ABC. Disney needs to up the ante at the network, pull out all the stops for the sweeps, and fund cheap concepts that can bring in the eyeballs. I know, it's difficult to do this when audiences are fickle and since creative success is always based on the subjective nature of the zeitgeist at hand, but I think Iger has to be anything but nonchalant about this.

The interactive operating segment reported a loss. Disney is investing heavily in producing its own video games, and sometimes I have to wonder if it wouldn't have been better to simply have licensed its intellectual properties to other publishers instead of buying up gaming studios and spending so much on development costs. Especially when publishers such as Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) have been experiencing problems in terms of growth.

DVD sales are down, and they're affecting results at the Disney Channel and the studio segment. There was some talk about tough comparisons in the press release. You know, last year at this time, High School Musical 2 was pulling huge numbers, as was Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. While that may be true, I sometimes hate the whole tough-comparison thing, especially with a company like Disney. It's supposed to be the owner of a great collection of intellectual properties. Couldn't Disney have leveraged its library a little better?

Parks and resorts aren't such happy places for shareholders. Attendance and occupancy rates are down. No surprise. I'll give Disney credit for some of the promotions it's doing to keep things at Walt Disney World and its other locations from going from bad to worse. Still, there's no easy fix.

And then we have consumer products. Know what helped to drive the poor performance there? Something that really irritates me: The Disney Stores. Iger should not have invested in this retail operation. Especially since the company had made a previous strategic decision to sell them off! Yeah, I was never happy about this move.

As I was preparing this piece, I noticed that the market was not being kind to Disney's stock in the after-hours session. It's down well over 9%. Of course, any after-hours session is volatile, and the stock could look a lot different tomorrow.

However, I can say that there's no way I can call Disney a solid buy after these numbers. The way the stock's been acting, though, I could see it trading up in the short-term after a sell-off (I may possibly do some trading of Disney based on this idea, but I'd have to further study the price action before making a final decision). But that's a risky proposition.

The Mouse is caught in a trap set by a nasty, evil recession. The question now is: What do you intend to do it about it, Mr. Iger?

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:03 AM

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