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Despite rising deficit, haven status continues to support dollar

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The dollar, despite the prospect of back-to-back trillion dollar U.S. budget deficits, continues to hold its own against the world's other major currencies. What's more, provided the fiscal stimulus package is passed, the national debt ceiling will increase to $12.1 trillion from the current $11.3 trillion.

The dollar strengthened about 1.5 cents to $1.2867 versus the euro Wednesday, and rose about 1.4 cents to $1.1586 versus the Swiss franc, while remaining essentially unchanged at 89.62 yen and $1.4490 versus Japan's yen and the British pound.


Why is the dollar faring reasonably well despite the U.S.'s rising budget deficit/national debt and little good news of late on the U.S. economy? It's a version of the old notion that 'misery loves company,' -- in this case, "the currencies are equally miserable," so says Andrew Resnick, currency trader.

Historically, a national debt approaching a nation's annual GDP, combined with a recession, and large job losses, would cause a currency to fall substantially, Resnick said. And that's traders' initial inclination, until they look at financial and economic conditions in Britain, on continental Europe, Japan, China, Russia, and Brazil: all are in roughly the same boat, economically, with varying degrees of public debt, he said. If anything, the United States may be viewed as "relatively better off, given that it is later in its economic cycle and will probably recover first," Resnick said.

"So you want to park your money, but the question becomes, where? The pound? Not there. The euro? Another risky play. Swiss franc? The Swiss economy is not immune to Europe's ills. Oil? Good luck. Oil could collapse," Resnick said. [Oil rose 26 cents to $41.04 per barrel Wednesday.] "The yen has emerged as a place to park funds, but Japan's economic fundamentals are worsening, so that's not fail-safe. Gold is a safe haven during hyperinflation times, but not during a global recession."

"Given the uncertainty, a lot of investors are continuing to choose U.S. Treasuries, which is supporting the dollar," Resnick said, adding that he was presently flat, or had no open trading positions.

Dollar Analysis: Once again, the United States is fortunate and in a unique position, in that its excessive debt has not caused a mass flight from the dollar. The nation can (and should) run large deficits to stimulate the economy, but as soon as the economy's on a sustainable growth track, it will have cut spending/raise taxes to eliminate the deficit, and prevent a large rise in interest rates.
Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-154.4810,309.92
NASDAQ-37.612,138.44
S&P 500-19.141,091.49

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 05:36 PM

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