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Will the U.S. economy's focus shift from consumption to production?

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It's an axiom of business theory that change is continual in market economies, but as economist David H. Wang points out, there's change that corporations and citizens can prepare for, and then there's change that few expect.

The latter is, by its nature, Wang says, more disruptive - - driving companies out of business, compelling triage-like changes in business models of others, while also triggering wholesale changes to family budgets, career paths, and students' educational objectives.

Wang groups change in three categories: cyclical (as in the business cycle), technological (such as the Internet, car, telephone, electrification, railroad etc.), and structural (globalization, Cold War, Marshall Plan, Bolshevik Revolution, the Enlightenment, Protestant Reformation, etc).

Why is this important for executives and investors to know in February 2009? The U.S. economy currently may be experiencing all three changes at the same, Wang said.

Changing priorities?

And while some analysts may point to technological change (the Internet) as being the most consequential and one people can least prepare for, Wang disagrees. "Structural change may represent the most significant in terms of the U.S. economy's role in commerce, and the one that's hardest to predict," Wang said.

Moreover, while underscoring that "we are very early in the globalization era to express informed generalizations," one trend Wang's watching closely in the U.S. concerns consumption patterns.

For a variety of factors, consumption, previously 60-65% of U.S. GDP, "may not be the driving force of the U.S. economy in the future," Wang said. Limits to real income growth, previous overconsumption, an aging population, and new public policy priorities are among the factors that may cause a move away from consumption, Wang said.

Over the next two decades the U.S. economy may shift "from one that's consumption oriented, to one that's production oriented," he said. "Basically, we go back to making things, with consumption accounting for 45-50% of GDP."

Obviously, the above would represent a seismic shift in terms of U.S. commerce. For example, in a more-production-oriented U.S. economy, does a Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX) type business model survive? Will the smorgasbord of retail clothing outlets, fast-food chains, and shopping malls that dot the landscape thin-out? How do local businesses, such as local hardware stores, dry cleaners, bakeries, etc. fare? What happens to leisure / entertainment businesses, including golf / tennis clubs, fitness centers?

"Clearly, the early signs indicate that consumption will decline as a percentage of GDP. Consumption will mean less in the U.S. economy. What we don't know is how large that decline will be," Wang said. "But without question the economy that emerges as the U.S. economy starts to recover from this recession will see more emphasis on high-end production and less emphasis on consumption."

Economic Analysis: Considerable food for thought from economist Wang, for executives and investors alike, and he touched on one factor that's received only minor coverage by major media outlets: the U.S.'s aging population. Marketing research confirms that people tend to consume less as a percent of disposable income after age 40. The U.S.'s aging population would only support any national trend away from consumption.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 04:27 AM

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