Yum! Brands had a decent Q4 -- buy the stock now?


Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), whose competitive colleagues include McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD), Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC), and Wendy's Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), reported earnings for Q4 and the full fiscal year on Tuesday after the bell.

Net sales increased 4% for the quarter to $3.4 billion, and earnings per share on an adjusted basis went up 5% to $0.46. According to the earnings preview, sales essentially met Wall Street's view, but net income was beat by a penny. For the year, Yum! saw a net sales increase of 8% to $11.3 billion, and its adjusted bottom line increased by 14% to $1.91 per share. Once again, sales were in-line, and earnings beat by the proverbial penny.

I thought Yum!'s report wasn't bad. Sure, it wasn't the most exciting growth in the world, but comps grew 3% for the year on a worldwide basis, and management reported that its return on invested capital reached 20%, certainly a decent number. Net cash from operating activities held up well, dipping only slightly. Capital expenditures did, however, go up, so free cash flow unfortunately suffered.

Still, the cash flow covered both the dividend and the capital investments, so I wouldn't panic over it. Yum! will have difficulties going forward, though. Earlier, Douglas McIntyre discussed challenges in the company's China assets. And there will be the impact of changes in currency translations.

The company has great brand power in KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, and management does like to repurchase shares and bestow dividends upon its shareholders (although we'll see how share repurchases go in 2009, since many companies have scaled back on that process).

Although I didn't see anything particularly bad about the quarter, I don't see any reason to buy the stock just now. Yum! isn't expensive on a long-term basis, but I could see the share price dipping in the short term, considering the global economy. As for the stock's reaction to the news, it is down a very small amount as I write this, like 0.11%, something like that. Not much excitement for the numbers either way, I guess.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 12:25 AM

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