The company increased its top line for the fourth quarter by 6% to $10.8 billion. Net income on an adjusted basis decreased 2% to $0.43 per diluted share. According to Stocks in the news, the bottom line missed by a penny, and the top line missed by a whole lot more.

Well, my earnings preview turned out to be wrong. I thought Kraft could maybe pull off a beat. Wasn't meant to be. This was a weak showing for Kraft, and even though earnings increased 3% for the full year and free cash flow jumped 19%, I'm not impressed. How can I be? Guidance is soft, management stated that it's not in the mood right now to repurchase more shares, and there's the question of how currency translations will affect 2009.

Plus, you've got to believe that no-name, generic products are starting to challenge Kraft. Looking through the release, it's obvious that brand equity still means something to consumers, but there were instances of lower volumes as well. Given that the company has needed to raise prices, I wonder if the supermarket shopper is becoming increasingly aware of alternatives as the economic crisis grinds forth. (I'll tell you this, though, no matter how bad the economy gets, I'll still shell out the extra money for Nabisco's delicious Wheatsworth crackers! I had a few before starting this piece.)

I think the move in Kraft's stock is telling. It's telling investors to stay away for the moment. I have no problem with Kraft as a long-term, dividend-reinvestment play. You really can't offer a bearish argument on that point. But considering the price action, it might be best to assume that Kraft shares are heading lower from here.

So, if you really want to invest in Kraft, you might get shares at a cheaper absolute price. I think that the sell-off, given the fact that Kraft was perceived as a solid defensive equity, was warranted.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.