Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the January 2009 jobs report to show a loss of 524,000 jobs. If that occurs, the U.S. economy will have shed more than than 1.5 million jobs in just three months, and more than 3 million jobs since the U.S. recession began in the fall of 2007.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News also expect the nation's unemployment rate, currently 7.2%, to rise to 7.5%.

A battle over Dow 8,000

Financial institution bulls and bears have been engaged in a battle over Dow 8,000 for about four months. The bears argue the worst economic news stemming from the financial crisis is yet to come, with likely, additional downward revisions to corporate earnings in 2009; the bulls, that the worst news is behind us, and that government stimulus, fiscal and monetary, will both stabilize the financial system and get the U.S. economy moving again.

With sentiment mostly bearish, BloggingStocks Thursday asked economist Peter Dawson to make the bullish case - - in other words, 'what conditions would be needed to spark a market rally from here?'

"Everyone has basically discounted a bad job loss number for December [2008] so the bullish case would involve a loss of fewer than 500,000 jobs, word of continued progress in Senate on the fiscal stimulus package, and any other good news possible on the bank bailout, such as an outline of the plan from the Treasury Department," Dawson said. "That of course can't guarantee a firming stock market, but I think that sequence would be viewed more-positively than other scenarios."

Dawson would also like to see Congress include a cut in the corporate tax rate to 25% from the current 35% "to further encourage private investment, and corporate commitment to new projects, joint ventures, and a return to hiring."

Fiscal Policy / Economic Analysis: The view from here is one of a realist who hopes for the best. The glass is always half-full, but one must also always heed objective data points, and right now they're not that positive regarding the U.S. economy's outlook, and the outlook for stocks.

But let's keep the tone upbeat. The United States needs to go from sobering job statistics to sensational, but we'll settle for sustainable GDP growth with solid job gains. The fiscal stimulus package will help in this regard, as will the Fed's quantitative easing, but more will be needed.

The U.S. must find a new growth sector / engine of growth, and if any investor / reader has an idea or suggestion as to what that new sector might be, add your comments below.

Let us know what you think.