Aden sisters see 'brighter times ahead'

"Even though some feel we're on the brink of the next Great Depression, if we look under the surface, a different story is emerging. We know the economy is going to get even worse before it gets better and we know housing prices are plunging.

"More corporate collapses or defaults are still likely and it's also well known that everyone is deeply in debt, from the government to the average citizen. But we also know that the government and the Fed have been going all out to turn this deflationary spiraling nightmare around.

"That is obviously not the concern now; rather, the main concern is recession, deflation and depression. So the prevailing policy is, do whatever has to be done to turn that around and then deal with the other repercussions.

"The bottom line is that the Fed is simply not going to let everyone go broke, and take the economy with it, without ongoing intervention to turn the tide around, and neither is Obama.

"Overall, we see several signs that suggest brighter times. For one, investors have generally stopped selling and buyers are starting to come into the market.

"This is coinciding with the fact that the stock market is the most oversold it's been in decades. It's clearly at an extreme, which is a strong signal that the market is indeed bottoming and it'll soon head higher. It's the same story for the global stock markets.

"It's also a good sign that the Dow Industrials has continued to hold above the 7500 area. This marks the 50% level of the bull market rise that started in 1982 and ended in 2007.

"In bear market declines, a return to the 50% level is normal. So far, the Dow did that, halting its decline just above 7500 in November and it's been moving up since then.

"Another interesting point in recent years is how closely the Dow has tracked the action leading up to its last big bear market in 1973-74, and the actual drop itself. At that time, the Dow fell 45%."This time it dropped nearly 50%. So this too is an indication that the bear market has likely run its course, reinforced by a large number of panic down days.

"At the 1974 bottom, the news was horrible and it's the same story today. Keep it mind, that's fairly typical at major market bottoms because the stock market is forward looking. That is, it will begin a new bull market rise when the news is at its worst.

"Again, the stock market will lead, and the economy and news will follow, normally a few months later. Yet another positive are the seasonal factors. The stock market generally moves higher in the first four months of the year and it often declines in the Summer and into the Fall.

"Low interest rates are also normally very good for stocks. And with T-Bills at zero, rates can't get any lower. That was certainly the case in 2002 when super low interest rates helped fuel the 2002-07 stock rise.

"But note that since 2000, stocks have also moved with interest rates. Currently, interest rates are extremely bombed out and they'll likely move up this year. If this pattern continues, stocks will rise too, along with interest rates, which would be reasonable as this would coincide with better economic conditions.

"Okay, so what should we be watching to be more certain that a substantial rise is actually underway? We're watching the Dow Industrials. If it can rise and stay above 9040, it'll be a strong sign that it's going much higher.

"For now, keep the stocks you have and do not sell. If this proves to be just a rebound rise in the ongoing bear market, then we'll sell the stocks we're currently holding at a better price.

"As for now, we recommend buyying a small position in Dow Industrial Diamonds. This ETF will move up, along with the Dow and whether the market turns bullish or not over the long term, this ETF should do well in the months ahead."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.