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New credit card data bad for American Express and banks

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Looking at the jobs and retail landscapes, it would make sense to assume that consumers are slow in paying credit card bills. In some cases, they are not paying at all.

The actual trends are getting much worse, and banks with consumer credit exposure may be in for a rougher time than expected. According to Reuters, one credit rating agency is getting more business. The news service reports, "And more lenders are requesting an Equifax product called 'bankruptcy scores' that expresses the probability that an individual will be bankrupt over the next one to two years."

The trend has two consequences, neither of them positive. The first is that lenders are not going to put a lot of money into the market for car loans and other opportunities for consumers to make purchases.

The second is that firms, including American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Citigroup (NYSE: C), may be facing very large consumer credit write-offs between now and the end of the year.

Toxic assets are not be the only reason for the government to put funds into large financial companies. Consumer credit may be nearly as big a problem.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 11:49 PM

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