One more time: Start new banks


Since last October, I have been repeatedly suggesting that the U.S. would be better off creating new banks rather than putting capital into zombie banks -- whose financial toxic waste prevents them from lending. This is the fifth time I have made the suggestion -- I previously posted on it here, here, here, and here. Until today, I had no idea whether anyone was listening. Now I have a hunch that at least one person might have gotten wind of the idea -- maybe he listened to this radio interview last month on KCRW.

That one person is none other than Paul Romer, an economist at Stanford's Institute for Economic Policy Research. Yesterday Romer wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. needs banks that can lend and that it would be easier for that to happen if we put TARP money into new banks rather than trying to use the money to revive the zombie ones.

Romer suggested that if the next $350 billion of TARP money was used to create new banks and was leveraged at a conservative 9:1 ratio, it would make $3.5 trillion in lending capacity available to the economy. This sounds to me like a good use of the TARP. However, while there may be $3.5 trillion of loan demand in the U.S., it is unclear what proportion of those borrowers would have a reasonable chance of repaying the loans. Moreover, the new bank plan still begs the question of what to do about the zombie banks.

For that little problem, I would suggest the plan my colleague proposed -- let the FDIC buy the 15% of mortgages that have defaulted in the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBSs) that constitute so much of the zombie banks' financial toxic waste. This plan would allow the MBSs to trade – rising to 90% of face value – shifting them from Level 3 status -- no way to value them absent internal financial models -- to Level 1 status -- meaning that since they trade, there is a real market price to use in valuing them.

The banks would be able to resume lending and their stock prices would rise. They could issue stock and raise more capital. Meanwhile, the FDIC which excels at workouts could restructure the mortgages with homeowners – reducing the number of foreclosures.

Although Romer does not tackle the problem of what to do with the zombie banks, I am happy to see that a credible economist has gotten the idea of creating new banks some attention on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal. I hope someone in Washington takes it and my colleague's plan seriously.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book is You Can't Order Change: Lessons from Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing.

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