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Applied Materials will report quarterly earnings tomorrow

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Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is set to post earnings tomorrow, with estimates calling for the company to lose a penny per share in the latest quarter. According to Bloomberg, the company expects to report earnings that range from break-even, to a loss of two cents with the range from analysts checking in being between a gain of eight cents to a loss of a penny.

AMAT is the world's largest producer of semiconductor production equipment, and its report could certainly set the tone for trading in the sector. The firm has already tempered expectations for the results, announcing that it expects revenue to fall 35% for the quarter, thanks to numerous factors, including the economy and slumping demand. Couple the economic situation with a worldwide slowdown in demand (the first year-over-year drop since 2001), and the situation doesn't look great for AMAT.

It certainly seems as if the company has tried to prepare investors for the worst, but is there any reason to believe AMAT can rally? Better-than-expected earnings can always send a stock higher, but AMAT faces stout technical resistance from its descending 20-week moving average. This trendline has capped the shares in the past, with the stock last topping the moving average in August 2008. Even if the company tops expectations, it will need quite a bit of momentum to force its way through this staunch resistance.

What about potential support if the company misses expectations? There is the stock's 10-week moving average, which has provided a hint of support in the past -- but it isn't the strongest layer of help. We could see the shares rest on the round-number $10 level if needed, this region has provided both support and resistance throughout the past year. If the report is absolutely dismal, we could see AMAT drop to challenge its recent lows in the $8 region; but I think the report will need to be very bad for this to happen.

Technically, it is a mixed bag. It certainly seems as if AMAT could remain locked between its 10- and 20-week moving averages, but this period of stagnation can't last too much longer -- these two trendlines are on a collision course and we could see some sort of resolution in the next few weeks.

As for the short term, it doesn't seem as if the technicals are there to indicate a major jump in either direction following earnings. Of course, I could be wrong -- believe me, it has happened before.
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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 09:55 AM

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