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Why you should ignore analysts

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Remember Wall Street analysts? Those are the people who go on tout TV and tell you to buy stocks regardless of what is happening to stock prices. The reason you should ignore them is that they get paid to make you buy stocks which generates commissions for their employer. If they issue 'sell' recommendations, they will scare people away from the market. And then there won't be any commissions to pay them.

This comes to mind courtesy of some fresh statistics on analysts' rate of issuing buy recommendations as stocks have plummeted in the last year. When stocks hit their peak in 2007, analysts put buy or hold calls on stocks 95% of the time. And last month, history's worst January, analysts urged you to sell a mere 5.9% of stocks. In 2008, as the market lost almost 40%, sells never outweighed buys or holds.

I'm not sure whether anybody actually acts on analysts' recommendations. But if you are one of the people who buy when analysts urge you to do so, just remember that you are not the one who pays them for their analysis -- their employer is paying them. And those brokerages need stock trading commissions to have enough money to pay the analysts.

The reality is that nobody -- except perhaps Warren Buffett -- can predict what will happen to stock prices and he is not an analyst -- he works for himself. If you're going to invest in individual stocks, you should make up your own mind and not rely on the analysts.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book is You Can't Order Change: Lessons from Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 05:39 AM

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