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Valentine's Day makes or breaks the flower industry. What happens if the recession causes lovers to cut back and just exchange greeting cards? Among other businesses, 1 800 Flowers (NASDAQ: FLWS) may have the most important week of its year ruined and investors in the stock may watch it fall and stay down until the next big holiday.
FLWS is already off to $2.31, just above its 52-week low and way off the period high of $9.25.
The 1 800 Flowers troubles says a great deal about the breadth of this recession. A box of roses probably costs about $40, depending on where someone lives and how the rose crop has done recently. That is not a lot of money to spend on a gift, especially one that is probably important. But, if people won't put out that money, what will they buy? The answer is probably almost nothing.
The consumer economy is entering a tipping point. People have already cut back on more expensive purchases like PCs and furniture. Buying cars is out of the question. But, flowers on Valentine's Day is an entirely different matter. Call it a canary in the coal mine. Or, make that a cupid.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.
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