Today's economic (and credit market) conditions call for taking a page out of that great analysts' defensive play book: if we liked it at $27, we like it even more at $24.The 'it' being AT&T's (NYSE: T) shares. AT&T shares walked in tandem with the market's great slide in 2008, but just as significant, the shares have been essentially unchanged since October 2008. In other words, shares were essentially unmoved by the greatest financial market and stock market turmoil since the 1930s.
Hence, that's the major reason T is favored here. Further, even though revenue for fiscal 2009 is likely to be flat or nudge just slightly higher, AT&T's strong brand, wireless division growth, modest broadband business gains and adequate balance sheet position the company to ride out the remaining credit market bumps that are almost certain to appear in 2009, along with the weak U.S. economy. The company's $1.60 annual dividend adds to the positive mix. The First Call F2009 / F2010 EPS estimates for T are $2.00 / $2.27.
Once broken up by the U.S. government because it was the only telephone company in the nation, "Ma Bell" has recaptured something of its former status via acquisitions, and now boasts telephone service in 22 states, including California, Texas, and Illinois. Further, AT&T's network reaches every major nation in the world: how's that for an operational footprint?
Stock Analysis: AT&T is a low-risk stock. Consider buying a 25% position in T now; then buy another 25% in three months, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your AT&T position in the first half of 2009. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $18.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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