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Earnings preview: Will Viacom rock the analysts?

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Viacom (NYSE: VIA), a media company that used to exist as one business with CBS (NYSE: CBS) and whose colleagues include Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, will issue Q4 results on Thursday, February 12.

I don't know, I don't feel a lot of confidence about them. According to this source, Viacom may earn somewhere around 79 cents per share in the fourth quarter. That would represent a drop of about 6% when compared to last year's Q4 results (which you can check out via this .pdf link). It wouldn't be so bad if Viacom merely met earnings expectations. After all, the media industry is working through a nasty cycle of contraction. Take a look at Disney's earnings and you'll see what I mean.

I'm not so sure Viacom will be able to do it, though. The company is going through all the same problems: advertising recession, soft DVD market, bad retail environment for merchandise, etc. I've read some opinion stating that perhaps Viacom will have a decent quarter considering it has cable properties that command carriage fees in addition to advertising revenues. Problem is, some of Viacom's major platforms, such as MTV and VH1, are hitting a bumpy road in terms of ratings growth. Recently, some analysts have cut their price targets on the stock.

But I think it's going to be an interesting report, because you have to figure that management will say something about their plans for reinvigorating the MTV Networks. And what do they plan to do about DVD sales? Will there be any new announcements in terms of Viacom's digital strategy? Longtime watchers of this company know that Executive Chairman Sumner Redstone has been adamant that Viacom be relevant in Web 2.0. (Or have we reached Web 3.0-status yet? I'm not entirely certain.)

You also have to wonder what might be said about the Disney-DreamWorks hook-up (I myself do not agree with this deal). Does that change the equation for Viacom's own movie slate now that the Mouse and Steven Spielberg are in business? The thing I actually want to hear the most on the earnings conference regarding movies is how management intends to cut production and, perhaps more importantly, marketing costs. They're getting out of control, and they've unfortunately sunk poor Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) in its own quarter. Granted, Viacom is bigger than Lions Gate and can hold its own a little better than the smaller studio can, but that doesn't mean that there isn't an endemic problem in the industry when it comes to film-related expenses.

And then there's Viacom's video-gaming ambitions. Viacom's Rock Band 2, distributed by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), was very popular in 2008, even in the face of very stiff competition from Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero franchise. Rock Band has helped Viacom out in the past, so maybe it can do a little of the heavy lifting in the upcoming earnings release.

Like I say, I don't have a lot of confidence in Viacom. It's got a great collection of media assets, but I don't think much can be done about the slowdown. Management just needs to defend cash flow as best it can and invest carefully, making sure it has a very judicious eye on returns on capital and shareholder value. I would not be buying ahead of the report, as I think there is simply too much risk for a miss on the bottom line.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard, Disney, GE; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 10:42 PM

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