Choose Verizon (VZ), if you're just as cautious as its subscribers


This market isn't fit for most investors, but if you have the risk tolerance to own (or increase a position in) a stock or two, consider a utility.

But not just any utility. We're talking a well-capitalized utility. With solid revenue streams. And a large, moneyed customer base. And dominate positions in key markets. Hey, this is not a market for 'experimental business models' and 'iffy' stock plays, which is why Verizon is worth a review.


Yes, landlines are passé. Definitely not hip. Nor the stuff of dinner party talk. Cell phones and mobile technology are totally cool and all the rage. That is, until there's a power failure in your area. Then one sees the value of a landline phone (and a phone handset that works without a 110-volt electric outlet, by the way). Verizon (NYSE: VZ) has 36 million landline subscribers and is the major phone service provider in New York City, most of whose 8 million residents would sooner move to the South Pole before they would concentrate their communications services in one technology.

Look for a decent 7-9% revenue gain for VZ in F2009, to about $110 billion, including an approximately $10 billion gain from the buy of Alltel in January 2009.

Further, wireless revenue should increase nicely, climbing about 10% in F2009, ahead of its peers. The roll-out of Verizon's FiOS television business has been mediocre, but the broadband Internet component of that business is impressive, with 25% of VZ's 10 million FiOS-capable homes / businesses choosing the service. The First Call F2009 / F2010 EPS estimates for VZ are $2.51 / $2.67.

Stock Analysis: Verizon a low-risk stock. Verizon is an investment, not a trade. Consider buying a 25% position in VZ now; then buy another 25% in three months, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. More-cautious investors should wait until Verizon clears and closes above $31 before buying shares. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your VZ position in the first half of 2009. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $18.


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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 04:13 PM

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