The song remains the same, regarding U.S. jobless claims

Meanwhile, continuing claims fell 7,000 to a 4.81 million Americans, but that level also remains a major concern to economists. Last week, continuing claims hit their highest level -- 4.88 million -- since record keeping for the statistic began in 1967.

U.S. in 'a pronounced recession'

Economists note that the high continuing claims level reflects labor market stress, and the long time it takes for those downsized to find comparable employment. Few companies are filling vacancies, many major corporations have announced large lay-offs, and even temporary work assignments are declining, another negative sign for the labor market.

Economist Peter Dawson said Thursday both the 4-week moving average and the continuing claims level reveal a pronounced recession. "The overall jobless claims trend remains higher, as evidenced by the rising 4-week average, and the continuing claims level reflects very soft hiring by employers, as well," Dawson said. "We have the worst job market conditions since the Reagan recession of 1981-82, and that trend will have to reverse to see improving end-results for companies. "

The impact of a rising jobless claims rate on investors? Rising new unemployment implies that household formation will decline, which almost always leads to softening demand, and that translates to lower corporate revenue and earnings.

Economic Analysis: As noted, a statistically insignificant dip in the weekly jobless claim stat. Company hiring remains cautious and light. Given the high level of continuing claims and the current pace of job losses, the best case scenario for the U.S. economy would be a recovery in revenue and earnings in lat Q3 or early Q4 2009.