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The fiscal stimulus plan: Where is the missing element that solved the Great Depression?

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The most sweeping fiscal stimulus in a generation is about to be signed into law by President Obama. It amounts to $787 billion and includes tax incentives, infrastructure projects, renewable energy developments, and payment to state and local authorities.

However, investors appear to be skeptical as indicated by the performance of the markets today for a variety of reasons:

  • Some estimate that as much as 75% of the spending will not reach the economy until 2010.
  • There are questions as to how many jobs in the United States will actually be created.
  • People are uncertain as to how productive the spending bill will be and how much is actually just wasteful "pork."




The most interesting element about the bill is what appears to be missing: a substantial amount of defense spending. Despite disagreements as to whether the Roosevelt infrastructure programs started the road to recovery or merely cushioned impact of the economic downturn of the 1930's, most agree that World War II with its incredible defense spending definitively ended the Great Depression.

Defense spending has a variety of benefits over other forms of fiscal stimulus in the bill:

  • It has a direct impact on economic activity in the United States. There is no need to start a trade war with protectionist language of "Buy American" in the bill to insure that jobs produced stay in the United States. Because of national security reasons, defense spending is by law restricted to be domestic in nature.
  • Defense spending can be spent much faster by government agencies under the control of the President than a trickle down approach of the other elements in this bill.
  • The bill would have attracted much more support from Republicans, who would find it very difficult to oppose spending which they have strongly advocated under President Bush.
  • Many economists believe that this bill is merely the first installment of a multi-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus effort that will be required. This will increases the chances of obtaining backing for such an effort

Some may claim that President Obama would have difficulty selling this to his Democratic base. However, one must remember that the President campaigned on a single anti-war issue, withdrawal from Iraq which is largely in process, and has not been anti-military. His base would have hard opposing the defense stimulus if the President made these points in addition to benefits listed above:

  • Defense spending is a rather broad category and could be structured to include spending, such as the energy and broad-band initiatives favored by the President. Concern about dependence on foreign oil is a major concern of the military which is already experimenting with bio-fuel for jet fighters. Remember the Internet was originally developed as a communication network for the military and government designed to survive an atomic attack.
  • It could also be spent and have a more direct impact on creating jobs. Remember the resources that were utilized for the Manhattan Project.
  • It would be easier to enlist bipartisan allies, such as, Senators McCain, Coburn, Webb and Reed to control the pork associated with defense spending and prevent the FreePasser phenomenon from getting worse.

The president will probably call for additional fiscal stimulus in the future and may be forced to include increased defense spending at that point.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for ChannelCapitalResearch.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices.

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NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 02:35 AM

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