Is Marvel worthy of an upgrade?

There really isn't much going on in terms of catalysts. News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) will be releasing X-Men Origins: Wolverine this May. It'll be a hit, but it won't impact Marvel's coffers in as significant a fashion as something like Iron Man did. That's because Marvel took on more of the risk by financing that project by itself. The Wolverine feature is a licensing deal. Not as much kick to that. Aside from that movie, there aren't any more major releases set to hit in 2009.

I'm going to keep a close watch on Marvel's stock. I would love to get this below $20 per share. The 52-week low is $23.28, and the stock closed on Tuesday at $25.10. Seeing Marvel below $20 isn't out of the realm of possibility.

While I agree with Wedbush Morgan that the shares should be higher, I just don't feel comfortable buying just yet, especially considering that the big action is due to commence in 2010. We get both the Iron Man sequel and a film based on Thor in that year. Both of those projects are from the self-financed portfolio, not the licensed assets.

It could be a bit early to own Marvel, and without any good catalysts around, I could see the stock easily trending lower before it trends higher given the bad economic state of the world.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.