General Motors (NYSE: GM) presented a 117-page plan for "viability" last night. But after looking at it, I concluded that it was "crafted" to increase the odds of getting the $30 billion loan it now claims it needs to survive. As Mark Twain said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." And GM's viability plan is the third kind. Why? Its sales forecasts are way too optimistic.
Yesterday, I spoke with a class I'm teaching about Net Present Value (NPV), which is supposed to be the basis of GM's plan for viability. In simple terms, an investment has a positive NPV if it pays back the up-front money plus interest and some profit within a reasonable period of time. I pointed out that since the NPV calculation is based on projecting the future, it is almost always wrong. Therefore, the forecaster has an obligation to state his or her assumptions explicitly and to re-calculate the NPV with different ones -- I recommend a sensitivity analysis with a 10% cut in base case assumptions.
GM's assumptions are wildly optimistic. It thinks it can get back to profitability in 24 months based on sales projections that seem way to high. More realistically, Chrysler's plan forecasts 10.1 million units for the industry in 2009, and flat sales of 10.8 million units between 2010 and 2012. But GM thinks industry sales will be much higher, ranging between 11.5 million vehicles and 14.3 million vehicles in 2010 and from 14.5 million to 17.5 million in 2012. So why are GM's numbers too high?
They ignore how fast sales are falling. 2008 industry sales were an estimated 13.2 million -- down 19% from 2007's 16.2 million. And in January 2009, industry sales were down 37% -- with GM's tumbling 49% and Chrysler's down 55%. If you annualize the January figures, 2009 sales should total 9.6 million -- which is 11% below Chrysler's estimate and 17% below GM's. When GM starts off with an overly optimistic estimate of 2009 sales and goes up from there, you know you're in trouble.
And when you start to think about why sales are down so much, you realize just how self-serving those optimistic sales forecasts are. As I posted, GM wants to fire 47,000 people and there are millions of homeowners in foreclosure and 3.6 million people who have lost their jobs in the last year. These are not the kind of people who can afford a new car or get a loan to help them buy it.
When you're in the kind of deflationary spiral we're in now, companies are racing to fire people faster than demand is dropping. And those fired people are the very ones that would need to be buying cars for GM's overly optimistic sales forecasts to make any sense. In short, GM can't pay back the money because its sales forecasts are unrealistically high. Its management has presided over a 95% drop in GM stock and $73 billion in losses since 2004.
To me, it's pretty clear that if GM wants its $30 billion, the U.S. should demand new management that can at least tell the truth with its numbers.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book is You Can't Order Change: Lessons from Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.
Savings Experiment: Snow Removal
The Money Man Behind Rick Santorum: Who Is Foster S. Friess?


Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-18-2009 @ 2:16PM
BirdsAbound said...
“Our” ADDICTIVE DEPENDENCY ON OTHER PEOPLES’ OIL?? After all, we in this country NOW KNOW FOR SURE --- originally by means of Hubbert-inspired statistical analysis of patterns of past discoveries of the stuff, now CONFIRMED by many years of rather exact EXPLICIT MAPPING OUT of reserves (applying sonographic and other techniques), that we have at this point USED UP (and rather PROFLIGATELY!) about 70% of our OWN Providential endowment of raw oil --- and specifically the “easy” stuff! The remainder (which the “drill, baby, drill” crowd is now so hot to go after), is at this point only to be found in low-capacity “stripper” wells, or under water, or somewhere north of the Arctic Circle, or WAY DEEP --- SO THAT IT IS VERY EXPENSIVE TO “PRODUCE” --- which means that it would NOT be possible to shave very much (if anything) off the “price at the pump” by aggressively exploiting such declining resources.
Indeed, THAT is actually what has given rise to the whole “business” of AGGRESSIVE EXPROPRIATION (or very expensive ATTEMPTS to do so) of the endowments of OTHERS elsewhere in the world, and then transporting that “booty” thousands of miles to be refined, distributed, and marketed (with, of course, endless opportunities for “profit” and “taxation” at every step along the way) --- all the while PRETENDING to each other and “our”selves (by ARTIFICIALLY EXCLUDING FROM EXPLICIT CONSIDERATION all those “ancillary” --- e.g. all the “military” --- costs that ACTUALLY DO ADD IN to its OVERALL TRUE cost) that the end result is somehow “cheaper” than the alternatives would have been! People may not WANT to “connect the dots” --- but $10 BILLION A MONTH toward the care and feeding of all those Sunni Militias in order to “keep the lid on and the OIL flowing” REALLY IS A “HIDDEN” PART OF THE COST OF THAT OIL!
And of course, we are STILL going to have to pursue the alternatives ANYWAY --- AFTER having now FOOLISHLY BLOWN the economic advantages that we not so very long ago had enjoyed --- which could have substantially EASED what will surely be a very DIFFICULT transition! --- BRILLIANT, people!!
Now the “Oil Industry” is NOT going to just GO AWAY. Its products are used as the CHEMICAL FEEDSTOCK for a GREAT MANY things that we produce and use every day --- especially many different PLASTICS and plastic-like materials, such as ASPHALT, and polyvinyl-chlorides used in water and gas pipes and electrical conduit, and all that SIDING used in building. But “we” DESPERATELY need to QUIT BRAINLESSLY BURNING THE STUFF UP as a MERE FUEL!
__________
So what, then, might the alternatives actually BE?? Well, FOR INSTANCE:
GM’s forthcoming Chevy VOLT is an ELECTRIC car with a battery that will carry it about FORTY miles. Thereafter, an INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE kicks in. But that engine is NOT coupled to the wheels MECHANICALLY; rather, they are powered (only) ELECTRICALLY. Instead IT DRIVES A GENERATOR that supplies ELECTRIC drive motors at the wheels. And if you erroneously imagine that no “electric” vehicle can get above 30 miles per hour or get out of the back yard --- well, be advised! All modern MASSIVE LOCOMOTIVES, and also the VERY LARGEST SHIPS are (and have been for many years!) actually driven by ELECTRIC motors. And the speed record for ELECTRIC-powered cars out at the Bonneville Speedway is somewhere north of 400 Miles per Hour last I heard.
Now the thing is, statistics show that fully 75% of all auto usage is “short haul” runs that would “fit” within the 40-mile “power budget” of the battery --- SO MOST OF THE TIME THE GASOLINE ENGINE WILL NEVER OPERATE! Ici voila!-: THREE-FOURTHS of all petroleum consumption to power automobiles SIMPLY, STRAIGHTFORWARDLY ELIMINATED!
The battery would be charged from the power grid, or (better yet, eventually) YOUR OWN PHOTOVOLTAIC ARRAY or WIND-POWERED-GENERATOR low-voltage auxiliary system, when the vehicle is not in use. Using ELECTRICAL power could render it PRACTICAL to DIRECTLY harness the abundant but intermittent / highly variable FREE energy that rains down on us perpetually from the sun --- which we “traditionally” WASTE! (The car battery DOESN’T “CARE” if it is charged intermittently or at a variable rate AS LONG AS IT GETS CHARGED UP!) Or absent such FREE power, about 80 cents worth of "grid" power would “fill the tank”. (Eight such charges, or $6.40, would yield 320 miles --- about the equivalent of a tank of gasoline THAT COSTS ABOUT FOUR TIMES AS MUCH!) Beyond that, fuel consumption would depend on how the car is used --- but for ordinary usage the internal combustion engine WOULD BE AT MOST ONLY MINIMALLY ACTIVE!
And one also simply DISPENSES WITH (!) the whole elaborate TRANSMISSION and DRIVE TRAIN --- utilizing simple, relatively UNbreakable MAGNETIC-force (rather than complex, fallible mechanical) drive elements. (There is NO TRANSMISSION on a Diesel Electric locomotive --- we could not BEGIN to build a sufficiently heavy-duty clutch! That is why the whole ELECTRIC MOTOR paradigm was developed for very HEAVY loads in the first place.) So now, think of all THOSE savings too!
Above all, though, note that the VOLT is merely an adaptation to a MUCH LIGHTER application of very OLD, WELL-ESTABLISHED, HEAVY-DUTY technological concepts. The battery-powered car has been around since the EARLIEST days of the automobile, and the Diesel-electric LOCOMOTIVE (and similar systems --- for example, in the largest ships) have been around for ABOUT 60 YEARS NOW ALREADY! There obviously has been no TECHNOLOGICAL reason why the adaptation to the mere AUTOMOBILE could not have been accomplished MUCH SOONER --- had “we” but mustered the wisdom and the wit to do so! (People really should now be thinking about the FALSE “economic” reasons why the alternative was NOT pursued sooner, and how the rationales for not doing so now prove to have tragically MISLED “us”!)
I submit that it would now be appropriate for "Government" to fund GM (at BARELY above subsistence levels) to sustain ONLY those "life functions" of the moribund "patient" that truly COMPEL QUICK evolutionary progress AWAY from the currently FAILING "business model"! That support needs to be VERY SPECIFIC, being purposefully directed toward ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION, BRINGING INTO PRODUCTION, and more generally PUBLIC POPULARIZATION (through EDUCATION, and indirect tax-forbearance SUBSIDIZATION!) of such initiatives as the VOLT (and its sure-to-soon-follow derivative progeny) --- and ALSO, more broadly, such OTHER "outside-the-box" initiatives such as the Toyota / Hyundai / Ford pioneering of REGENERATIVE-BRAKING ENERGY CONSERVATION technology.
Moreover, it ALSO needs to begin to dawn on people that it will be advantageous to MARRY THE "REGENERATIVE-BRAKING" AND "ELECTRIC CAR" TECHNOLOGIES: doing so would about DOUBLE the RANGE of any battery-powered system, just as it doubles the efficiency and range of the all-gasoline-powered Toyota Prius (which has a 21.5 miles-per-gallon engine that ends up achieving around 45 mpg!). Maybe THAT initiative is what CHRYSLER should be "funded" to focus upon. (A little good-old-fashioned, " "capitalistic" COMPETITION could be a very good thing!)
So: eliminate perhaps FULLY SEVEN-EIGHTHS(!) of all the importation of oil to supply gasoline to fuel "our" automobiles. And while "we" are at it, also CONVERT all those heavy TRUCKS to NATURAL GAS --- which “we” have (for now) in ABUNDANT SUPPLY --- per the proposals being advanced by “oil”man T. Boone Pickens. Now THERE is FOREIGN OIL INDEPENDENCE for you! And it really COULD (and SHOULD!!) have been done MANY YEARS AGO NOW ALREADY!!
SUCH are the sorts of initiatives now needed to ACTUALLY IGNITE the "GREEN-COLLAR ECONOMIC REVOLUTION" which, if generally embraced, could INTELLIGENTLY, CONSTRUCTIVELY restore the economic health of this society (and would SURELY be preferable to any cockamamie WAR like the one whereby "we" "escaped" from the so-called "Great" Depression!).
Now if my ideas come across as "HERETICAL", then so be it! But you DON'T successfully treat a patient who is DYING OF LUNG CANCER by BUYING HIM OR HER MORE CIGARETTES. It appears that the OBAMA crowd is indeed smart enough to "get" that. EVIDENTLY THEIR PREDECESSORS WERE NOT!
_
2-18-2009 @ 12:44PM
william lindblad said...
A change in management might be an answer? Your commentary still evades the underlying question of should they get the money or file for bankruptcy.
Make up your mind as there are only two viable positions, for or against. I can be critical of most of what is out here in the economic realm, but without a position, it says nothing. Problems are not solved with the rhetorical, they are solved with answers.
This is but one of the problems that currently confront us. We have many economists speaking out and they are mainly academics. It also appears that this group lives in it's own isolated world, away from the peons that live and work to make it tick. It becomes very easy for you and your compatriots to believe that you know best. I am also willing to believe that you have never had dirt under your fingernails and have never seen difficult times. Why should you and this class have the power to dictate what is good for the masses?
Years ago our State legislatures and our Congress had a majority of business people. Now its lawyers and others who seem to think themselves the elite. When these bodies had to get things done on the shorter sessions required by the latter much more was achieved. We need to get back to what works. There is no lack of intelligence, just a lack of what is reality.
The great mess that we now experience is the result of many people not observing. Perhaps some were on the political take, but Greenspan certainly was not. He, as the 2nd most powerful man in the world, deserves much blame. Two actions, dropping interest and holding it low along with the concept of negative amortization opened the door. If he, and all the others, from Congress to the SEC, had paid some attention the auto industry, along with the rest of the worlds economy, would not be where we are.
2-18-2009 @ 1:24PM
thedude said...
@BirdsAbound - I couldn't bring myself to read your entire rant, what I did read made some sense but it was just very poorly communicated and not quite on topic as this is not about oil consumption but car sales
Quite simply I believe Obama and the Spendocrats could have killed two birds with one stone if they simply paid every American family $10,000.00 to purchase an American car and by Amrican car I mean Ford/Lincoln/Mercury - Dodge/Chrysler/Jeep - GM and Saturn products NOT those Toyotas or Honda that are manufactured in the US.
The 787 Billion stimulus (money borrowed from China , why else do you think Hillary is in Asia right now) would have paid EVERY SINGLE U.S. CITIZEN some $2600.00 based on a family of four that is 10g's+ each
I find it terribly frightening that Honda, Toyota and BMW can manufacture cars in the US cheaper than the true American marquees
2-18-2009 @ 2:05PM
jason said...
I've been watching the scenaroios here, some self preserved some rherotic some true some oh well.This entire sympsonism is so simple.Everyone in the US get from the supposedly bailout so flawed,get a million dollars each thats 305 million moolahs.Barely over a quarter billion dollars us.Then everyone that has a mortgage pay it off.Get a tax break and tremendous interest charges right off by paying off their mortgage's.By having at least one good (hopefully economy car)paid for.., everyone that works can save some put it into savings then the rest spend as needed yet frugally spent.Then ALL Americans buy as many American products as possible keeping industry here so the rest won't lose their jobs.Then the ones that can afford a home to live it is paid for.Now just look at the advantages here. Then use the rest of the bailouts to fix the roads and bridges. rebuild all the schools. pay for Americans to get a free college education others technical schools.Now just think about what i've written here and understand how this would pick up the economy.Isn't this a great idea.Just think the rest would all fall into place, think about this :)
2-18-2009 @ 2:27PM
BirdsAbound said...
Hey DUDE!-
Try reading the WHOLE thing. You will find that it actually IS "about car sales" --- because when people have been brought to economic RUIN by the whole OIL DEPENDENCY thing, they NATURALLY CANNOT go out and buy more cars!
The REAL "object of the game here" is NOT to
"restore the markets" to ANYBODY'S preconceived notion of "normalcy". The ACTUAL objective is to DEVISE SOMETHING THAT CAN ACTUALLY WORK GOING FORWARD! And "more of the same" is NOT an option here! The MESS you now observe is the constructive-proof-positive demonstration of THAT!
2-18-2009 @ 2:51PM
badger said...
When there are union workers making $100,000 or more a year screwing on lug nuts, recovery can never happen.
2-18-2009 @ 3:23PM
CPEAKE said...
Riddle me this: what makes any of the Big 3 automakers think that within the near future anyone will purchase a new car or truck? Have they seen the great bargains on used cars and trucks across the country? I don't care how much money each of us is given, about .04% of Americans will spend any of it on a new vehicle. Let's face it: our automobile industry is DOA.
2-18-2009 @ 4:50PM
genesis68ba said...
For the previous blogger, the price of used cars is CLIMBING (witness the prices paid at auctions over the past two months). Those "great deals" on used cars and trucks will be over soon as there is nothing in the pipeline to support it (remember, a unit has to be sold as new first).
2-18-2009 @ 8:10PM
babyraymond8 said...
I read the GM plan and it is alot better than the blank sheet of paper that wiz kid wall street bankers gave and for a lot more money!! Be American!! Buy American!!!
2-19-2009 @ 1:15PM
Wind Generator Plans said...
You are absolutely right...
Think about this for a minute, pay GM $30 billion to stay in business and the promise to 'only' cut 50,000 jobs in the next 5 years and close 5 manufacturing plants this year...
Why not invest in an industry that is showing promise, the promise of jobs and the promise of growth for the economy. Renewable energy, such as wind generator plans and solar installations, which will see $2 billion in grants from the Recovery program will actually create 12,000 jobs next year alone.
Spend $30 billion to lose 50,000 jobs or $2 billion to grow 12,000 jobs, hmmmm.
By the way it is not a recession it is a depression, a complete restructuring of the economy is in order, built from the ground up.
Why provide GM execs with more jet time when the labor force is going down the street? Build it from the ground up and finance real growth in real jobs.
That makes sense.
It doesn't just work for the centralized model either, this works at the family level as well.
Find out more here
http://www.homemade-wind-generator.com
2-19-2009 @ 6:05PM
mark H. Adelson said...
I was gratified by the comments made by Babyraymond8 on February 18 in READER COMMENTS. What the U.s auto indutry has done or not done cannot compare to Wall Street and its misdeeds. The media's press on the U.S. Auto industry has been so negative and intensive particularly onGM over the past three months. Let them go bankrupt that is the constant pounding the media(financial"experts") have visited upon us . But consider this: Can anybody imagine what the price of a foreign import(and those foreign vehicles made here) are going to cost the working class individuals if there is no more U.S. Auto industry to offer competition? We will be a captive audience. Yes, Babyraymond8 I agree. Buy American ,support the U.S. automakers. But how many of our fellow Americans can comprehend the impact of a U.S. auto failure?
2-25-2009 @ 3:35PM
tunakurtz said...
GM has'nt the knowledge or know how to produce a product capable of returning a profit. High labor cost linked with inferior product design and quality will continue to drag GM into the abiss. It doesnt make any difference how much money you throw at GM,without a different business model approch, and the continued pay out to labor, this company should be renderd worthless.