All we talk about is levels these days. Have you noticed? Is there any annotation more important in the morning than the one that Bob Byrne makes in the Columnist Conversation? I find myself glued to things like Dow Theory, watching the transports trade. I haven't done that in ages. I look at the bank index and the ProShares UltraShort Financials (SKF - commentary - Cramer's Take) to try to figure out when that group will stop going down ... or I should say, if it will stop going down.
It is one big technical madhouse.
It's almost as if there is this very strange duopoly: If we close lower than some arbitrary level set in some horror-show trading back in November, then it is Katy-bar-the-door-here-comes-Dow-6000-this-is-the-end-the-end-my-friend Jim Morrison and the Doors oblivion call. If we "hold" here, then we are right back in the swim, ready to launch higher.
Of course, if this were true, what the heck is the point of just about ANYTHING? If it is that binary, why should we bother?
The dice-roll nature of the enterprise seems pretty scary, doesn't it?
To me, the better thing to do is to make a bet on something you like and use the breakdown -- I would say the inevitable breakdown, but that conflicts with "the thesis" -- to buy more of it, like we do in Action Alerts PLUS. We have half a dozen stocks we dearly hope will get taken down with the market so we can buy more of them, because they are getting cheaper as they go down! I want to buy Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take) at 4 times earnings, but I want to buy it even more at 3 times earnings! Where does that fit in? What's the story with that? Shouldn't I hate Chevron if we don't hold and love it if we do?
I want to buy Agnico Eagle (NYSE: AEM) (Cramer's Take) to play the gold romp, and if it goes down I want to buy more because it has a heck of a lot of new product coming on line that is already paid for, and it wants to move that dividend up big. The CEO, Sean Boyd, had me positively enthralled because he wants AEM to be the next Homestake Mine, a legendary stock that used to throw off cash and dividends like mad.
Where does that fit into the this-is-the-end-my-friend scenario?
Anyway, think about what you like that you might like more lower, and the pain of the breakdown won't seem like pain at all.
Just an opportunity, because you have done the homework, and the binary nature of the market is your friend, not your enemy.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-19-2009 @ 7:36PM
Sergeant said...
Anyone who continues sinking money into the stock market is a fool. The meltdown proves that capitalism is a failed system. The Wall Street weasels and congressional crooks who got us into this mess should be put on trial LIVE ON THE INTERNET.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ9vTJLIA8M
3-14-2009 @ 11:43AM
staggermekc said...
Send them to Gitmo! Wall St and Co. along w/ corp greed and selling off our country to China and Opec has done more hurt and sorrow and suffering than -9/11 !!
They are Econterrorist who used short term, short sell, speculative bowl movementsd for their golden exits- I would love to have them in a cell and get golden showers - cant wait for the XXXtube vid of Maddof bent over being Bubba's bitch and more...but I am sure he'll be taken out before then ...but i'd like to see the guy ( who's mother should of had an abortion ) suffer more than taking a bullet to his fat ugly head
2-21-2009 @ 10:23PM
Tall said...
Everyone is always looking for the next best thing to invest in and as risky as the market is now why not make that risk to reward ratio pay off. Yes I know everyone cringes when you say pinksheets or over the counter, but in my opinion there are some gems waiting for a huge upswing (yes I know there are some real crapshoots and plain crap too).
One gem IMO for example, look at Crystal International Travel Group ticker CINT. Way undervalued compared to the possible upside here. I recently contacted the company a few weeks ago and they assured me they were not issuing shares (as most fear that pinks do) they are soon to have their updated financials on file with the SEC. I am sure you have heard of one of their subsidaries-Intellifares
* Crystal International Travel Group (CINT) business model merges the knowledge, reliability and human touch of the travel agent community with the advanced technology, speed and flexibility of online travel planning to address one of the travel industry’s most pressing issues - price stability.
* CINT focuses on business and leisure customers who travel frequently and in predictable patterns such as timeshare owners, vacation home owners and others. It addresses the needs of this lucrative travel niche segment with an innovative new offering that allows them to lock in five years of roundtrip travel at fixed rates and discounted prices.
* CINT offers two complementary products which address the broad spectrum of travel needs. These two products IntelliFares and TheTravelHouse bring together two opportunities to bring genuine revenues year over year to the company. These two business units are detailed in the following sections
http://www.intellifares.com/
http://www.purchaseifares.com
240,000,000 shares = Outstanding Shares (OS)
104,000,000 shares = Restricted Shares
This is not "The End" my friend in this case. This is just the beginning here. I think one has to look for new emerging companies-so be it if they are in the "lower exchanges"