China has $1.95 Trillion in foreign exchange reserves and is the largest holder of US government debt. It holds about $696.2 billion of US Treasuries.
US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, went to China and asked the Chinese directly what their policy is toward the purchase of our debt. Secretary Clinton emphasized the interconnectedness of our two economies. Clinton said: "It would not be in China's interest if we were unable to get our economy moving again." She went on to say: "We are truly going to rise or fall together."
Chinese Foreign Minister, Yang Jiechi, reportedly said that China had no plans to change its policies on US Treasury purchases.
So far the delicate balance where China buys our debt and we, in turn, import their goods is still intact. However, the US and Chinese economies are walking a tightrope. If conditions in China continue to deteriorate and China falls deeper into recession, they will need to use a greater sum of their foreign exchange reserves.
Looking down a dark tunnel, China may be forced to limit of cease purchasing US Treasury securities. This, in turn, would place extreme pressure on our bond market. No other country has the reserves to pick up the slack. In a worse case scenario it would throw our bond market into chaos.
The problem is further complicated by the high unemployment in the US, now about 5 million people. Overall, Americans have less money to spend for purchasing China's goods.
Let's hope that neither country falls off the tightrope.
Do you believe that China will limit or stop buying US Treasuries?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-23-2009 @ 5:39PM
Ben said...
Like I always said. If someone owes me almost 2 trillion dollars, I'll probably hire a body guard, private nurse and doctor for him. Then I'll go to church and pray that he doesn't die before paying back the money. lol
2-23-2009 @ 8:04PM
tom said...
put US workers back to work, making US made products and everything will be OK.
2-23-2009 @ 11:12PM
thedude said...
In the early 1990's almost everything I owned including my car and all my clothing and household goods were manufactured in the USA, By the time Bill Clinton had entered his 2nd term 90% of those companies had left the US in favor of China, Guatamala, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka etc etc
If Obama and Hillary have their way the USA will cease to exist in 4 years. We will be the CSA the Chinese States of America and we will be mandated to shop at WalMart
As for me I think I will defect to a country with a more patriotic attitude and certainly a more responsible gov't. I'm thinking Iran is the way to go. Ahmadinejad(sp?) may be fanatical but at least he isn't an idiot like Obama/Clinton.
2-24-2009 @ 7:26AM
FXBOTBOPman said...
Reply to Connie Madon
You have forgotten the Chinese investment in Fannie/Freddie guarantied mortgages (approx $500bil out of $5.1tril outstanding for these two organizations). Just between Treasuries and the Fannie/Freddie investments, the Balance of Payment (BOP) would yield (at a very conservative rate of 5%) $60billion a year or $5 billion a month. Then you'll have to add to that the private sector Balance of Trade (BOT) deficit with China which totals $23.5 billion per month in 2008 (down to $19.9 billion in December/08).
Part of the answer to your question is already reflected in the "announced" investments this past week of $41 billion expenditures in Australia, Russia, Brazil, Germany and they are all HARD assets (metals, oil, chemicals, etc.) with real returns instead of paper returns. Presumeably, that is just a small portion of their "stimulus" package ($684 billion)that uses their foreign exchange reserves when US Dollar that is at the height of exchange rates. Even with the lagging effects of the Chinese "stimulus" expenditures and the BOT/BOP payments, the Chinese Current Account balance will be negative for 2009/2010, which is NOT very well tolerated in that part of the world (witness Thailand, Korean experience in the 90s). So to answer the rest of your question, I am predicting that the Chinese will only purchase US Treasuries to the extent of BOT surplus and possibly the renewal of Treasury/Fannie/Freddie maturities. But not too much beyond that. Obiviously, it is a bad omen for interest rates for this country and the hoped for recovery.
3-05-2009 @ 12:21AM
nutroxx said...
It was and would be better if the people of the United States of America kept out of other countries and we went back to making everything we use! If we dont make it, we don't need it! We need to honor our Constitution and maintain our Freedoms! If others bother us, we should deal severely with then and stay to ourselves and Yes, Keep our guns and tobacco too! Doc. Bennett
3-05-2009 @ 12:20AM
nutroxx said...
All American!
http://www.unitedstatesengineeringgroup.org/ United States Engineering Group