Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) reported earnings for the second quarter, and while they weren't that great in terms of growth, they did beat Wall Street expectations. The bottom line came in at an adjusted 65 cents per share from continuing operations. Analysts were expecting 64 cents per share. I know, a one-penny beat isn't necessarily something to crow about, especially when Campbell grew income from continuing operations by only a single penny on a year-over-year basis. In this market, though, this is the stuff of dreams.
In fact, I bet Campbell's shares would have been higher on the news if it wasn't for the fact that the Dow is getting closer and closer to the 7,000 mark (and, please don't worry, we'll see a Dow reading that begins with a 6 before you can scream sell!).
However, that doesn't mean that I'm necessarily bullish on the stock. While I think Campbell could be socked away in a long-term portfolio at today's prices given the stock's current yield, I think it's important to state that the shares are pretty close to a 52-week low, and that they most likely will go below that mark as sentiment continues to get uglier.
And I'm not just talking the sentiment of traders, I mean consumer sentiment as well. The specter of strong competition from private-label brands is starting to haunt the landscape. In fact, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) recently announced a big push for its private-label portfolio. As supermarket shoppers contend with the negative wealth effect caused by sinking retirement portfolios, and as they process the continuing elimination of jobs, they may think twice about sinking extra bucks into premium brands.
I think Campbell has a strong soup and foodstuffs portfolio, and I believe it will defend itself well against store brands. As an example, I would never drink a generic take on something like V8 juice. However, we're in tough times, and as investors, we have to face the realities of the charts. I think everything says we're going lower from here, and that includes defensive names such as Kraft (NYSE: KFT) and General Mills (NYSE: GIS). Kraft actually hit a 52-week low on Monday. Personally, looking through Campbell's earnings release, I think management did a decent job of making the best of a bad situation by leveraging the company's brand equity. But when it comes to the direction of Campbell's stock, I believe the market is telling investors not to expect a big rebound anytime soon.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.










