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Target: Does cheap chic mean bleak returns?

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The saga of Target (NYSE: TGT) has been a fascinating one for retail watchers. Once considered the only peer to Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) in mass market merchandising, Target magically levitated above the hoi polloi in blue smocks by selling cheap stuff that somehow managed to be cool. Shares have been on a wild ride, although Piqqem Sentiment for the company is positive valuing shares well above the current $30 zone.
The company reports earnings on February 24 and Wall Street is pretty much on the fence. Target has managed positive earnings surprises for the last four consecutive quarters but only barely in the most recent corner.

Consensus analyst rating on the stock is a "hold," leaning to slightly bullish sentiment. Insider buying and selling has been light but leaning towards the sales side.

The Christmas season was a horrible one all around with bad weather, difficult comps to previous years and everyone losing their jobs and houses. Not a good time to be a retailer, even a discount one. But Wal-Mart has managed to pull itself out, in part due to its smart merchandising for grocery segment -- an area where Target has never really measured up.

A major concern, too, is that other companies have copied Target's discount luxury act and are pulling it off pretty well. Wal-Mart's Hannah Montana line is one example of that, as are the Martha Stewart products now on sale at Targetesque prices at Macy's (NYSE: M)

Expect Target not to miss by too much or beat by too little -- the company is too smartly managed for wild earnings misses. Still, unless the retailer can show some signs of up, meaning, improvements in same-store sales (which declined last quarter), then shares will trade sideways at best on the report.
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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 04:22 AM

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