Here's the argument for Honeywell: although most people are familiar with its automation and controls business -- Honeywell makes those round thermostats you see in many homes -- the company's major business is aerospace controls and other avionics (39% of revenue), and here the order backlog is strong, as well - - supported by large orders from commercial airplane manufacturers.

Meanwhile, that thermostat business (36% of revenue) has been hurt by the downturn in the U.S. housing sector, but longer-term it will not only rebound, it should expand as more homes and buildings strive to increase energy efficiency. Here's one way HON will benefit: co-op complexes in Metro New York are replacing apartment thermostats to reduce energy consumption per unit.The First Call FY 2009/FY 2010 EPS estimates for HON are $3.10 to $3.28.

To be sure, Honeywell's large international presence could mean that revenue will be hurt disproportionately if the global economy does not show signs of improvement by the start of Q4 2009, but with shares trading around $28-30, the risk/return is more than adequate.

Stock Analysis: Honeywell is a moderate-risk stock. Honeywell is an investment, not a trade. Consider buying a 25% position in HON now; then buy another 25% in three months, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your HON position in the first half of 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $18.

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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.