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Heinz startles analysts with tangy profits

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Heinz has been working on its focus over the past seven years, and the strategy, to reduce its variety of products and concentrate on "money" brands, including organic varieties of its popular lines, seems to be paying off. HJ Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) has reduced its number of SKUs by 50% since 2002, and has plans to trim that number another 15% to 20% by 2011. If this quarter's profits are any indication, it's the way to go.

Yesterday, Heinz announced its fiscal third quarter results and analysts were wowed; earnings of $0.76 per share came in 12 cents above analyst consensus of $0.64, on revenues of $2.41 billion, under consensus of $2.55 billion. Even in a climate of dipping sales as consumers buckle down, Heinz' strategy of reducing costs by specializing is clearly successful. What's more, the organic sales have enjoyed a steady stream of 15 consecutive quarters of growth. This quarter was lower than Q2, but 2% higher than the year-earlier quarter; Heinz management calls organics "recession-resistent," as consumers who have become convinced organic is the way to go are unlikely to suddenly decide the pesticides and GMOs in conventional brands aren't such a big risk.

Other highlights Heinz management noted included a growing market share of ketchup in Latin America, where the product hasn't historically been as popular as in North America and Europe; and the reports of a gentle turnaround in grocery sales in February after a tough January for all grocery manufacturers. Investors were pleased, sending the stock up $1.12 to $33.77; it was up again today, 17 cents to $33.94. With a forward P/E ratio of 12.00 and an obviously calm, well-reasoned plan for the next few years, this stock looks to me like a bargain. Consumers may be scrimping in their grocery buying, but ketchup, barbecue sauce and pickle products are likely to remain a constant on shopping lists worldwide.
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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 11:30 AM

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