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PepsiCo (PEP): A portfolio anchor

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"PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) Pepsi is about as dependable a company as there is and the stock would be an excellent anchor for most portfolios," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.

In his Half-Priced Stocks, he says, "All told, PepsiCo has built an impressive lineup of 18 brands that each generate more than $1 billion in annual sales."

"Long ago, management realized that carbonated drink sales would fizzle out and per-capita consumption would become sluggish. In their place, bottled water and sports drinks became two of the fastest-growing categories. And Pepsi is the dominant player in both, with its Aquafina and Gatorade brands.

"Meanwhile, energy drinks have emerged as the industry's hottest segment -- with sales soaring from $1.2 billion in 2002 to more than $6.6 billion last year. Again, Pepsi is well-represented with Amp.

"The company is also the market share leader in iced teas and coffees through partnerships with Lipton and Starbucks. Finally, Tropicana, Dole and Ocean Spray fruit juices and Sobe vitamin water also all fall under the Pepsi mantle.

"So while the company might not ever claim victory over Coca-Cola in the cola war, it's winning plenty of other high-stakes battles.

"But drinks are only half the story at Pepsi. Through its Frito Lay division, the company is also the world's largest snack maker -- with a dominant 60% share of the U.S. market. Here, we have the Doritos, Tostitos, Cheetos, Ruffle's and Cracker Jack brands.

"Over the past year, the company has raked in overall sales of more than $40 billion and churned out operating cash flows of around $6.5 billion. And the company isn't just resting on its laurels.

"Management always has an eye on efficient use of capital and long-term shareholder value creation. It has also earned a reputation for acquiring great brands like Gatorade and Quaker Oats and making them even better.

"Maybe that's why PepsiCo was able to squeeze out top and bottom-line growth of more than 12% in 2007 -- triple the overall growth in global GDP. Shareholders were rewarded with a healthy 26% total return. Unfortunately, the shares gave back that gain last year, although they still held up much better than the broader market.

"The pullback has left PEP trading at just 15 times earnings -- a sharp discount from the premium multiple of 20 it has garnered over the past five years. I think those who jumped the gun and sold might be second-guessing themselves soon.

"First off, the company hasn't seen much of a dent in its business during this slowdown. In fact, volume growth remains healthy, pushing sales ahead 13% over the past three quarters.

"Earnings have inched up 8% -- not stellar, but still stronger than the declines that most companies are facing. I think the economic slump has even done Pepsi a favor by lowering input costs like energy and raw materials (specifically grains).

"Looking ahead, the firm's overseas operations should remain a bright spot. In Russia alone, Pepsi now sells over 200 million cases of beverages and rakes in over $1 billion in revenues per year.

"Elsewhere, the company is actively spreading its reach throughout parts of Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East -- regions that represent 86% of the world's population and 45 of the 50 fastest-growing economies.

"Pepsi is about as dependable a company as there is. The firm has powerful brands, growing global demand, a diversified product portfolio, and an excellent management team that consistently has its finger on the pulse of changing consumer trends.

"With a stellar return on equity of 35%, the company is also a cash machine and returns billion to shareholders each year -- it currently has an above-average yield of 3.3%.

"With an innate ability to reinvent itself, I think Pepsi will do fine regardless of the economic backdrop, and I plan to take advantage of the selloff by adding the shares to my 'Deep Discount' Portfolio."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 06:09 AM

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