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With a 34% plunge in sales and a $9.6 billion loss, is GM viable?

It must be tough to be CEO of General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM). Maybe Rick Wagoner should just declare victory and retire. After all, he's managed to generate $82 billion in losses in the last several years and decimate GM's stock price, which is down 96% since he took over. With GM's board solidly behind Wagoner, it looks like this counts as success in the bizarro world of GM.

Today GM reported worse-than-expected results. Its $9.6 billion loss left it with $14 billion in cash. And its sales plummeted 34% to $30.8 billion. The adjusted loss of $9.65 a share was 31% worse than analysts had anticipated. And its sales decline was 14% greater than analysts had forecast.

Now its auditor is likely to include a letter questioning whether GM is a 'going concern.' This means that its auditors are warning -- big surprise -- that it probably won't be able to meet its obligations. The 'going concern' letter itself is often considered a violation of bank lending covenants. But to get more taxpayer money, GM is optimistically forecasting that U.S. industry vehicle sales will be 17% higher than a realistic 2009 forecast -- and it expects those sales to rise thereafter.

Who do you believe, GM's auditor or its management?

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book is You Can't Order Change: Lessons from Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 22, 2009: 04:33 PM

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