U.S. stock markets appear to be in free-fall (at least short-term), the federal budget deficit will exceed $1 trillion for at least the next two years, and Congress will likely have to raise the national debt ceiling above $13 trillion -- all negative developments for the dollar. So what does the greenback do Monday? Of course, it continues to rise -- strengthening about one-half cent versus the euro and more than 2 cents versus the British pound, to $1.2581 and $1.4034, respectively.
Traders attributed the dollar's continued strength to flight-to-safety factors and negative sentiment just about everywhere else. With the global economy in a recession, and commodity prices falling or stagnant, investors are reluctant to deploy new capital into these segments -- preferring instead to park their money in safe investments. And, despite the United States' many financial and economic problems, U.S. Treasuries remain one of the safest -- if not the safest investment in the world.
Historically, gold has served as a safe-haven, as well, and gold has rallied this winter, but in this market gold is not a slam-dunk win for gold buyers. That's because gold likes an environment where prices are rising, or at least where some inflation exists. Conversely, if prices remain flat, or if the U.S. and global economies enter a period of deflation -- declining prices - - this will weigh on gold, as well - - a scenario that makes gold purchases at these levels, about $945, far from a sure-fire investment gain.
All in this together
Further, the dollar is also benefiting from a 'we're in the same boat' condition permeating the markets. It's not that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound -- it isn't -- it's that comparable conditions in Europe and Asia aren't that much better. Hence, conditions that would normally create a weak dollar are being canceled-out, more-or-less, by conditions that are leading to a weak euro and pound.
The impact of dollar's rise on investors? You want the dollar to rise on the U.S. economy's strengths, not other nations' problems, but in this market you take what you can get: the dollar's strength protects, to a certain, the value of U.S. investments, and makes it less likely financial institutions will start pulling money out of the United States, due to its economic woes and bearish stock market. The dollar's strength also has lowered short-term interest rates for the U.S. government -- enabling the federal government to finance is huge deficit at interest rates lower than would be the case in normal market conditions. That represents a huge interest expense savings for the U.S. taxpayer.
For consumers, the stronger dollar means, among other things, your dollars will go further when you travel to Europe and/or when you buy imported goods sold in the United States.
But given the U.S.'s pronounced recession and economic uncertainty, it would be understandable to hear that the stronger dollar in Europe won't benefit U.S. citizens, due to a likely cut-back their international travel plans and purchases.
Forex Analysis: How fortunate the United States is, currency-speaking. No other nation in the world could run a record budget deficit, have its economy fall into a recession, and see its currency strengthen against the world's other major currencies. Further, after the U.S. economy's recovery is firmly in place, that's all the more reason for President Obama and Congress to cut the U.S. budget deficit and begin paying-down the national debt: the low-interest rate period won't last forever, hence the smaller the U.S. budget deficit is, the lower the U.S.'s interest costs will be when rates normalize.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-02-2009 @ 4:20PM
BHarrison said...
Well, I have at least a half million in US currency; but with the global recession and sagging economies / currencies in other countries, what good is the currency markets? One might have better odds going to Las Vegas . . . well, probably not; but there simplyis no place to "invest" in anything if one is not an isnider with key information; and those guys aren't doing too well either.
So, who is "holding all of the money"? And where are they; and where/how are they holding all of that money?
These are lots of CEO criminals who should be prison for 20 or 30 years. Why aren't they being prosecuted?
3-18-2009 @ 12:58PM
Jerry Ritter said...
Routinely executives make statements about their companies and
markets. They do this on interviews, at shareholder meetings, at
public analyst briefings and in a variety of other public contexts.
In most of those statements, they actually say nothing.
In a few they say something important.
Important enough that knowing they were speaking truth when the world
thought they were lying, or knowing that they were lying when the
world thought they were truthful, would give an investor a HUGE
advantage.
We are looking for help in finding those audio and/or video recordings
of such statements. Both current or historic and for help forming and
testing trading strategies around them.