The Jonas Brothers fail at the box office -- will they survive?

Why am I so upset, you ask? Think about it: High School Musical is probably about done in terms of growth. I could be wrong about that, but doesn't it feel that way to you, too? I've read that Disney could continue the franchise with a different cast at some point. That's more than plausible; heck, it's even advisable. But, at least in terms of a merchandising phenomenon, I'd have to say that the logo has reached its peak. And remember that the big-screen version from the fall didn't crack the $100 million mark in terms of domestic-theater revenues.

Plus, Hannah Montana is also probably nearing the end of its life cycle. I do think that the movie based on the property, to be released this spring, will be a hit, but I'm not necessarily betting that it will reach $100 million. To me, that's a qualified hit, and a qualified hit might indicate that this fad is on its way out.

This is why I wanted my friends the Jonas Brothers to bring in a ton of dough over the weekend with their concert movie. Last year around this time, Hannah Montana's concert flick did nice business. It opened with a $31 million take, and eventually scored $65 million at domestic screens. I quibbled a bit over the distribution strategy at the time, but all in all, Disney extracted some value from the release.

The Jonas trio needed to do better than $30 million this past weekend. I was hoping that the intangible goodwill locked in the brand would become amplified and start a chain reaction that would allow all other Disney-related activities tied to the trademark to generate a maximum amount of gold for the company. Remember that the guys will be doing a show for the Disney Channel later this year.

Of course, I possessed no illusions. Even if the Jonas concert film had been a huge hit, I know it wouldn't have made a difference in terms of the stock price. Disney, like competitors Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, are doing poorly. The Jonas Brothers can't stop the recession.

But, they can keep the engines of synergy greased and running at the Mouse. And that's what I was hoping for. A little synergy to prove that the Disney model still works. I wanted to know that the incubation process remains in top shape. As long as the cash flow from the exploitation of projects like Jonas Brothers and future heirs to the High School Musical throne continues to roll in at a healthy level, Disney can hopefully keep relatively steady as the financial debacle continues to unwind itself from the dreadful excesses of the past. The stock can follow along later.

With this second-place finish, however, I'm not so sure that the Jonas Brothers will enjoy a long cycle of success. Hey, I can't predict the future, and I can't say for certain that they're on the way out. But I think CEO Bob Iger had better get his troops together and see exactly what the future value of the Jonas Brothers is and whether they need to adjust the creative model supporting the tween sensation. Seriously, I was shocked at the weak business of the film. And I don't want to hear about how Hannah Montana's film from last year was a different beast: don't talk to me about the fact that it was promoted as a limited release, she was more popular at the time, etc. None of those theories work for me.

Jonas Brothers: you bombed. You're not out yet, but remember that the clock used to count down the longevity of a fad might be winding down faster than expected in your case....

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.