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Wal-Mart increases dividend by 15% -- does this mean the stock is a buy?

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Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), a discount retailer that competes with Target (NYSE: TGT), issued a press release that shareholders are sure to print out and frame with joy. Management has seen fit to increase the quarterly dividend by a whopping 15%. The old annual payout was $0.95 per share. The new annual payout is $1.09 per share. In this market, such a move is like offering water to a man who has been walking through a desert for days without a drop of liquid in his canteen. It's that satisfying.
This beats the dividend increase recently bestowed upon the shareholders of Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). That Dow component increased its dividend by 8%. While that was also a nice gesture to patient shareholders, it wasn't appreciation measured in the double digits.

Wal-Mart certainly has the cash-generating power to fuel this increase. A look at the most recent 10K (which you can access from this page at AOL Finance) shows that the retailer made roughly $20 billion in cash from operations. Capital expenditures were approximately $15 billion. Dividends paid out were about $3.5 billion. So, assuming trends continue (operating cash flow has been on the rise the last few fiscal years), I think shareholders can feel confident about the increase. Not only that, but it's always a good sign when management decides to share the spoils with the owners of their company's stock. It shows that they believe that things should only improve going forward.

If you're a long-term shareholder of Wal-Mart, what this does is give you a little confidence to go ahead and keep on dollar-cost-averaging into the stock (of course, the final decision is yours after you perform some due diligence). You might own several other positions that are doing poorly, or that have not seen a dividend increase. So, if you're trying to decide which stock in your portfolio to allocate some extra money to, you might want to choose the one that has increased the dividend.

As an example, I own Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Coke, and I can tell you that I'm more inclined to put money into the latter since the former did not increase its payout this year (thanks a lot, Disney!). However, please keep in mind that this dividend increase isn't a magic shield in this market. It won't keep the stock from trending lower from here. In fact, shares of Coke have trended lower since its dividend announcement (and I think they'll be going lower still).

Face it: we're in a vicious bear market. I call it the Cloverfield Market -- we've never seen this monster before, we don't know how to deal with it, and whenever the government tries to destroy it, we're frightened to see that it's still living even after the bombs have been dropped. In that context, don't expect Wal-Mart's stock to go higher from here. Long-term shareholders are probably okay if they are patient and don't need to cash out right away; traders, however, should not use this news as an excuse to start a position.

Remember, the Cloverfield beast is out there, ready to eat any position at any time...

I own Disney, Coke; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 11:56 PM

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