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Is Activision Blizzard in a buying mood? Should it be?

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According to speculation in various news outlets and blogs, Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) may end up doing something with its huge cash position. The software publisher, most famous these days for its Guitar Hero property, has around $3 billion in its coffers. The question is, should Activision Blizzard spend its cash on an acquisition as opposed to doing other things with the money, like pay a special dividend or increase its buyback?

Considering that assets are cheap because of the recession, I'd say that a little shopping might not be such a bad idea. Here's an article that discusses the possibility of Activision Blizzard taking over Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) distributor of Grand Theft Auto. Then there's the concept of buying up THQ (NASDAQ: THQI). Perhaps the company could take Mortal Kombat off the corporate hands of Midway Games.

Okay, let me take the Take-Two scenario first. Activision Blizzard should not fool around with this idea. Why? Remember how Take-Two management rebuffed Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and its attempt to purchase the company? Take-Two management should have sold out when it had the opportunity. Maybe their heads are in a different state considering the recession; maybe selling out to Activision Blizzard would be a simple proposition. Personally, as an ATVI shareholder, I'd rather not see an attempt on the owner of Grand Theft Auto. Yes, I know, it would be a great coup to pick up that franchise and add it to a video-game portfolio, but I really don't want to go through the hassle of Take-Two playing hard to get. So, I'll say no to this option.

THQ would be an interesting buyout. It's really inexpensive, and it's got two interesting franchises: Saints Row and Destroy All Humans! I think Activision Blizzard could do wonders marketing those two titles. I could see this avenue being explored.

But perhaps my favorite notion is acquiring the Mortal Kombat franchise. Supposedly, it might cost only $40 million to buy the rights, according to that previously cited article. Honestly, that would not be a bad price for such a high-profile game with huge brand equity. Activision Blizzard could leverage its distribution expertise to give a new Mortal Kombat game a powerhouse release in the marketplace.

Who knows what will happen. Activision Blizzard has a lot of cash, so it's bound to do something. And I think the fact that the publisher's stock recently broke above the $10 level, a price which seemed to be offering some resistance, might have something to do with the idea that management could make a value-adding acquisition. Now, would it be wise to buy shares of THQ and Take-Two in speculation of such a move? Well, the short answer is no. It's simply too risky, and there is no indication whatsoever that Activision Blizzard has considered buying either of them. But, I'll ponder this: if I had mad money that I could easily afford to lose, I'd say it might make an interesting roll of the dice. THQ is well below $3 per share, and at around $6 per share, you've got to figure that Take-Two is rather cheap...again, it does own the Grand Theft Auto franchise, and that has to be worth something.

I must, however, reiterate that speculating on THQ and Take-Two is very, very risky, and you could lose a lot of money. The bear market has not been kind to those two. It will be extremely exciting to see what Activision Blizzard does this year with its cash. One has to assume that it'll do something.

I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 03:35 AM

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