Sales of safes are booming in New York and probably around the United States. (SentrySafe is a large safe manufacturer that probably has an opportunity for an IPO if it's profitable -- its stock would represent another great "fear play.") The price of gold hit $927 an ounce this week. And stock in Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ: SWHC) is up 79% since inauguration day (despite losing $76 million in its fourth quarter).
It's beginning to feel a bit like the period after 9/11 when people went out and bought gas masks, duct tape, and the antibiotic Cipro.
Fear is a powerful human emotion and it makes people do things that would make you wonder about whether an otherwise rational person had come slightly loose from his or her bearings. Unfortunately, with the FDIC warning that it could run out of money without an increase in insurance premiums or an infusion of $500 billion from the Treasury, its plea for replenishment of its deposit insurance fund appeals to the fears of people who are losing faith in our financial system.
Then there's the little problem of the 90% loss in the Dow from the peak to the bottom of the market between 1929 and 1932. If we had a repeat of that decline, the Dow would hit 1,400 before it's all over. Here's the problem for those who are buying gold and the safes to store it in along with guns -- in their nightmare scenario, what makes these folks think that they'll be able to get food and safety in exchange for bars of gold? You can't eat gold and it's hard to get change for a $50 gold coin if you want to buy a stick of gum.
It would probably be best for these people to learn how to hunt, fish, build campfires, and farm. I'm not sure the safes and the gold will do them much good. To be fair, the fear is real and I think the United States has an opportunity to help people deal with that fear in a more effective way.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book is You Can't Order Change: Lessons from Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing. He has no financial interest in Smith & Wesson securities.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-07-2009 @ 10:06AM
Lawrence Phoenix said...
THOSE WHO SACRIFICE FREEDOMS FOR SAFETY WILL LIKELY END UP WITH NEITHER ONE...
3-07-2009 @ 11:33AM
DLillie said...
Well Peter, you do it your way and I'll do it mine. I prefer to do it both ways. I have the farm. I have the food. I have the water, fruits, vegetables, etc. I know how to hunt, fish and preserve foods. I also have the good sense to properly arm myself and my family so that we can hang on to what we have. In the end, if worse comes to worse, I could easily see either silver coins, ammunition, or food as the new currency.
The key is to start thinking now about what a total collapse of our banking/credit/currency would look like and to prepare for such an event without going crazy, but these are essentially the same preparations that you should have made already to protect yourself in the event of war, natural disasters, etc.