When I arrived at my worst-case view that the Dow could reach 5320, my first reaction wasn't, "Look out below." It was more like, "Wait a second, how much I would like to buy these stocks at those levels?" Then I started thinking, "What do I do if it gets there and I am not in? Will it stay down there? Is it right to avoid a market that's cut by almost two-thirds in such a short period of time when some companies with really good earnings power might be selling at prices that we might never see again?"
But which ones?
Certainly not the under-$5 crowd -- Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take). Pass on ABC because you have to bet that Citigroup isn't AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take), that Alcoa isn't the old Asarco and that Bank of America can't stanch the bleeding caused by Tim Geithner's indecision, which is allowing the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF) (Cramer's Take) to destroy the stock.
No, I like eight of them, eight that I would be buying right here. If you buy in quarters -- 25 shares per 100 you want owned -- you'll need to start today.
The first is interchangeable because of the price, AT&T (NYSE: T) (Cramer's Take) at $20 or Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) at $23. Why? Certainly not growth; there won't be all that much because of the recession. However, they have so much cash flow and they can slow deployment of expensive equipment -- yes, even with Verizon's FiOS -- to the point where a dividend boost will take them to about 8%, a level that Altria (NYSE: MO) (Cramer's Take), the best-performing stock in the S&P 100, shows can withstand the onslaught. Verizon has a tad more growth because of FiOS, but it could cut both ways in a severe slowdown as the FiOS build-out will cost them.
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) at $18 is just too juicy. I think that it will be like CAT in 1985 when it sold down low on a weakened balance sheet and a war with labor. The company has much more wherewithal now. This is still the single best machinery company in the world, and I think that if you abandon it at $18 you are simply betting that things will never come back. That's a difficult bet to make because, if it has to, CAT can move the whole shebang overseas to where the markets are heating up again or recovering.
Here's a tough one: Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) (Cramer's Take) at $30. Tough because I think that means Pepsi's (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take) probably trading below $40, a better buy because Pepsi has less dollar exposure and also a snacks business that will have a fabulous commodity swing in its favor. Oh, and for the record, it is intriguing that Barry Diller bought a ton of KO shares here, but why should I think that it can't go lower anyway? Every insider who has bought stock in this era has done badly, with the exception of the director who bought Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) a few weeks ago! (I think these copper guys know something, because Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU) (Cramer's Take) is now expanding like mad.)
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take) at $24, cut in half off one bad quarter, is preposterous. If HPQ gets to $24, I don't know if Lexmark (NYSE: LXK) (Cramer's Take) or Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) (Cramer's Take) will make it. The competition will be blown away.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (Cramer's Take) at $40 -- just put the stock away. Some companies have a history. You can track them. When they trade at a certain yield, they are buys. At $40, JNJ is about at a level where it gives you a yield that is much, much larger than it has ever been. I know Johnson & Johnson can get there because it has big weak-dollar needs and because the president doesn't like the health care complex. And you know that if I love this stock at $40, I will have to put as much money possible on every point drop from there.
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) (Cramer's Take) isn't cheap at $45 in that it traded there not that long ago while almost every other stock in the Dow hasn't been at these prices in ages, if at all. But, like J&J, it is a level where you buy it and then you just keep buying it because it is doing better than all of its foes, has made its numbers in huge fashion and -- I think -- has the best growth prospects in the Dow. It would be a gift.
Finally, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take). Well, here's something. I am saying that Wal-Mart's basically a buy right here, give or take a couple of points. This is my favorite stock in the Dow simply because almost every single retailer is too indebted or too stretched financially to compete. This is Wal-Mart time. I would buy this one at this very moment, and I would make it my biggest position under $45.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria, Caterpillar, Freeport-McMoRan, Hewlett-Packard, Johnson & Johnson, Pepsi and Wal-Mart.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-09-2009 @ 12:14PM
toogeorge said...
On 2/13/09(Fri the thirteenth!) blogging stocks recommended 10 stocks, including GE, IBM and Caterpiller........ALL OF THOSE STOCKS ARE NOW DOWN, AND COLLECTIVELY HAVE LOST 13.5%, IN LESS THAN MONTH..........One time Consumers' Reports did some research on mutual funds and found 80% of them did worse than the Dow.........So I conclude that 'financial advisors' are a hazard to your pocketbook.
3-09-2009 @ 12:34PM
toogeorge said...
Oh, and Cramer says, today, that Caterpillar(CAT) is at $18........at 12:20pm 3/9 CAT was at $24.54...Wow what a rise!......Aw come on, Cramer is guilty of falsely stating the price of a stock, on the low side, presumeably to make it look like his pick does well.
3-09-2009 @ 1:43PM
derekandcolleen said...
He probably was told to state some positives in this negative market after bashing Obama for lack of a written plan on issues that relates to the market last week....
3-09-2009 @ 1:49PM
diffman40 said...
Like we should listen to this guy. He doesn't know up from down. d/a
3-09-2009 @ 1:59PM
Terry said...
Cramer has a big mouth and very few, if any, good recommendations. He doesn't care if you make money or not, just so he has his ugly "puss" in front of the camera. His predictions are never accurate. Take his advice at your own risk.
3-09-2009 @ 5:45PM
Marty Love said...
Winter is always a good time to find stocks down. People never spend money when it is cold or raining. But as soon as the sun comes out, they feel more hopeful and spend money and sometimes, after a few weeks of sun, lots of it. Obama came into office in January, dead cold winter — of course trade and commerce is still not happening. When the sun comes out in May, it will start to get better. So buy now, and just feel hopeful that the economy will get better late spring and summer, and stocks will then go up. The oceans don't really warm up even in warm climates until August and September actually has the warmest ocean waters. So look to early Fall for the real increase and change to happen in this country for the best. Yep, until then, times will be tough. Obama inherited this horrible economic problem and it will just take a little time for his policies to start working and he needs us to support him, have respect for him as our leader, and "envision" the "sun coming out"!
3-09-2009 @ 5:40PM
Tim said...
toogeorge
The prices reflect what he thinks they will be if the dow hits 5320. Learn to read you donkey. I am not the biggest Cramer fan, but i hate you more because you can't read.
3-09-2009 @ 10:17PM
toogeorge said...
And George said to Tim.......Obviously you didn't read and UNDERSTAND the article........And evidently you can't write, or have any manners.