Cramer on BloggingStocks: What to buy in the Dow

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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer identifies the eight Dow components that will become too cheap not to buy.

When I arrived at my worst-case view that the Dow could reach 5320, my first reaction wasn't, "Look out below." It was more like, "Wait a second, how much I would like to buy these stocks at those levels?" Then I started thinking, "What do I do if it gets there and I am not in? Will it stay down there? Is it right to avoid a market that's cut by almost two-thirds in such a short period of time when some companies with really good earnings power might be selling at prices that we might never see again?"

But which ones?

Certainly not the under-$5 crowd -- Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take). Pass on ABC because you have to bet that Citigroup isn't AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take), that Alcoa isn't the old Asarco and that Bank of America can't stanch the bleeding caused by Tim Geithner's indecision, which is allowing the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF) (Cramer's Take) to destroy the stock.

No, I like eight of them, eight that I would be buying right here. If you buy in quarters -- 25 shares per 100 you want owned -- you'll need to start today.

The first is interchangeable because of the price, AT&T (NYSE: T) (Cramer's Take) at $20 or Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) at $23. Why? Certainly not growth; there won't be all that much because of the recession. However, they have so much cash flow and they can slow deployment of expensive equipment -- yes, even with Verizon's FiOS -- to the point where a dividend boost will take them to about 8%, a level that Altria (NYSE: MO) (Cramer's Take), the best-performing stock in the S&P 100, shows can withstand the onslaught. Verizon has a tad more growth because of FiOS, but it could cut both ways in a severe slowdown as the FiOS build-out will cost them.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) at $18 is just too juicy. I think that it will be like CAT in 1985 when it sold down low on a weakened balance sheet and a war with labor. The company has much more wherewithal now. This is still the single best machinery company in the world, and I think that if you abandon it at $18 you are simply betting that things will never come back. That's a difficult bet to make because, if it has to, CAT can move the whole shebang overseas to where the markets are heating up again or recovering.

Here's a tough one: Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) (Cramer's Take) at $30. Tough because I think that means Pepsi's (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take) probably trading below $40, a better buy because Pepsi has less dollar exposure and also a snacks business that will have a fabulous commodity swing in its favor. Oh, and for the record, it is intriguing that Barry Diller bought a ton of KO shares here, but why should I think that it can't go lower anyway? Every insider who has bought stock in this era has done badly, with the exception of the director who bought Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) a few weeks ago! (I think these copper guys know something, because Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU) (Cramer's Take) is now expanding like mad.)

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take) at $24, cut in half off one bad quarter, is preposterous. If HPQ gets to $24, I don't know if Lexmark (NYSE: LXK) (Cramer's Take) or Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) (Cramer's Take) will make it. The competition will be blown away.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (Cramer's Take) at $40 -- just put the stock away. Some companies have a history. You can track them. When they trade at a certain yield, they are buys. At $40, JNJ is about at a level where it gives you a yield that is much, much larger than it has ever been. I know Johnson & Johnson can get there because it has big weak-dollar needs and because the president doesn't like the health care complex. And you know that if I love this stock at $40, I will have to put as much money possible on every point drop from there.

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) (Cramer's Take) isn't cheap at $45 in that it traded there not that long ago while almost every other stock in the Dow hasn't been at these prices in ages, if at all. But, like J&J, it is a level where you buy it and then you just keep buying it because it is doing better than all of its foes, has made its numbers in huge fashion and -- I think -- has the best growth prospects in the Dow. It would be a gift.

Finally, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take). Well, here's something. I am saying that Wal-Mart's basically a buy right here, give or take a couple of points. This is my favorite stock in the Dow simply because almost every single retailer is too indebted or too stretched financially to compete. This is Wal-Mart time. I would buy this one at this very moment, and I would make it my biggest position under $45.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria, Caterpillar, Freeport-McMoRan, Hewlett-Packard, Johnson & Johnson, Pepsi and Wal-Mart.

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DJIA+150.2510,058.64
NASDAQ+24.822,150.87
S&P 500+13.781,070.52

Last updated: February 09, 2010: 05:51 PM

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