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Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) won the box-office battle this past weekend. I have no idea what Watchmen is all about, except that there's a collection of superheroes and some sort of mutant blue dude in it, but I do know that it grossed around $55 million at domestic theaters, according to early estimates at Boxofficemojo.
For a rated-R mainstream pic that is over two and a half hours long, that isn't too bad. If it had been shorter and a little more open to younger demographics with a PG-13 rating, it probably would have taken in even more revenue. Come on, guys, think next time! Go for profit maximization.
Lions Gate Entertainment's (NYSE: LGF) Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail continued its strong run at the multiplex. It came in second, and its total tally now stands at over $75 million. I say this one will hit $100 million. The project proves that the Tyler Perry name has power. That gentleman is only getting stronger with audiences.
And now, let's talk about Disney (NYSE: DIS) and the Jonas Brothers. Ahem. As I observed last week, Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience bombed. This past weekend, it did even worse: it fell to number nine on the chart and took in about $2.8 million. Oh, that's embarrassing. It represents well over a 70% decline in revenue.
Hey, you can never tell with these things. One day you're on top and everything you touch turns to gold, and the next day, you realize that the half-life of your particular fad may not have been as high as previously thought. I hope these guys fare better with future projects, and that this film is an atypical albatross (I own shares of Disney, you see).
Of the stocks I've mentioned so far, only Lions Gate seems interesting to me. Neither Time Warner nor Disney represent a compelling investment thesis to me right now. Yes, they are cheap, but I think their respective stocks are due to go down again as more bad news flows into the market. Disney has to contend with weakness at its theme parks and other issues, and Time Warner has a bunch of moving parts to contend with, too.
Lions Gate, on the other hand, just looks better to me as a closer, more pure play on the movie business. I like the way the stock is staying above the $5 level, as well as how it's bounced off its 52-week low of $3.65. I wasn't brave enough to buy it at $5, but I should have.
Still, Lions Gate is speculative, and, along with media companies such as News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), it is dealing with a terrible DVD market. Has all the bad news been priced in? Is it a buy on the next pullback, at least for a short-term trade? This is a difficult market to trade. All I can say is I'll be watching Lions Gate more than the other two this week.
Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-09-2009 @ 12:17PM
murph said...
who the heck is Tyler Perry and why does every movie/TV show he makes have to have his name in it?
3-09-2009 @ 12:31PM
??? said...
@murph:
Tyler Perry is a big-name playwright-turned-businessman in the African-American community. His works cater to a very niche market: African-American families, particularly middle-classers. As a result, he's really successful.
As per the name thing, it's a basic branding convention/ego boost. That's all, really.
3-09-2009 @ 12:33PM
sitruc said...
I hate the little creatures, but how much did the Jonas Brother movie cost?
3-09-2009 @ 4:49PM
InContext said...
The Jonas performance is embarrassing mainly compared to the Miley performance - which was in the midst of a manufactured sold-out concert frenzy and a limited release fake-out - people learn from these things, you know.
JB3DCE is still the second highest grossing concert film of all time. And in my opinion, it's a more enjoyable film. Too bad the whole thing was so mismanaged, I really like the Jonases.
3-09-2009 @ 8:41PM
Jessy Scholl said...
What happened with the Jonas Brothers is somewhat Disney's fault. When the Hannah Montana 3D concert came out in limited release, it proved to be a hit and the same could have happened with Jonas Brothers, but Disney chose to make the release longer in theaters. Another thing is the shows. Jonas Brothers show is just that, a show featuring boys playing a group of brothers that happen to have their own band. Hannah Montana stars the daughter of a country music star. Disney has got to be thinking of giving Hannah Montana another season or two while cutting off the Jonas Brothers.
FYI, while the Jonas Brothers concert may be second highest grossing, it is still made only $12 million total to date while Hannah Montana made over $30 million in limited release on its opening weekend, and went on to gross $70 million total.