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Beware biotech

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News events of the day are providing a dramatic illustration that not all biotech companies are the same.

Just as President Obama lifted the executive order banning the use of embryonic stem cells for research, Roche and Genentech (NYSE: DNA) appear to have reached an agreement on Roche's bid to acquire the 44% of DNA that Roche does not currently own.

Shares of biotech companies engaged in stem cell protocols rallied after the Obama announcement. While most of these companies are small in size with stock prices below $2 per share, the announcement gave impetus to price increases of 17% to 100%.



Biotech company Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) had a different experience from the market when it announced results from its latest clinical test of Albuferon.

Albuferon is a breakthrough drug for the treatment of genotype 1 hepatitis C, allowing patients to administer the drug every two weeks instead of weekly, as is the case with drugs currently marketed for treatment of the disease.

Human Genome Sciences announced results from the clinical experiment, which were in-line with company expectations. Unfortunately for the company, traders and analysts were hoping for something more, since the relatively small company was going to have to face off with the alternative treatments marketed by the pharmaceutical giants.

Doing what was expected was simply not enough, and the stock was hammered.

The price of the stock blew through the previous 52-week low, and is now trading at a level less than 50% of that price. The stock had reached a 52-week high of $8 in June, but is now less than 60 cents.

While the company has two other products in late-stage clinical development, neither one has the level of promise and hope afforded by the hepatitis drug. One of the drugs treats lupus, and the other treats inhalation anthrax.

The dramatic rise in the stock of companies engaged in embryonic stem cell research illustrates the extent to which the market rewards hope over reality. It is unlikely that the majority of these low-priced stocks will survive beyond the short term, as they neither have the capital nor the demonstration of success to support their value.

The experience of Human Genome Sciences is illustrative of the fate that most of these companies face. As the hope becomes concern and then abandonment, the share price for many will fall below even the current level.

Investors should be wary of moving too quickly into this segment.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 01:29 AM

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