If we learned anything from Tuesday's market, it's that it is spring loaded, pun intended. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 379.44 or 5.8%, closing at 6,926.49. The NASDAQ and S&P were up even more. All this on skimpy news from Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) that it may have made a profit in the first two months of the year. That was all it took to get the market to pop!For it's part, Citigroup jumped even more, ending the day at $1.45, for a $0.40, or 38.10% gain. Sending a memo to employees is not a novel approach to getting some stock buzz when anything more could have ended up being a lawsuit for potentially misleading investors somewhere down the road.
While employees might be encouraged by the company's news, CNBC's Squawk Box called into question Citibank's Profitability.
The stock market has been very hungry for good news, and those came in bunches like revisiting the uptick rule to hamper short-selling, Fed Chairman Bernanke's statement supporting major banks, and M&A news too.
The important thing to understand from Tuesday's bounce is how much pent up demand there is in the overall market place. The stock gains were the largest one-day rally of the new year. Unless good news becomes a trend, it will be short lived.
On the other hand, all of the market bears that have been looking at years of no growth and stagnant earnings may have been looking backward more than forward. Given that oil prices are down, interest rates are down, companies are leaner and meaner and still cutting, the savings rate is way up, debt and leverage have been and continue to be reset, the balance of trade has improved, and the government is pouring trillions of dollars into the economy, a short term bull rally at least is very possible.
It also should be noted that so many billions of dollars have been wagered to the short side over the last 18 months that 'the shorts' may end up taking it in theirs, and have to cover those bets in a hurry!
The amount of cash sitting on the sidelines is enormous. Most investors understand that inflation will be a factor somewhere down the line. After all, in the digital age, the U.S. Treasury can create currency instantly. I call this 'light-speed inflation'. Under these circumstances cash might be the worst place to keep your resources.
If it is possible for the Dow to lose 3000 points in a few months, there is no reason that it cannot do the same in reverse. The world we live in (and invest in) is much more volatile then ever before because news and capital move so very fast. Many prognosticators have pushed the potential for economic recovery to late 2009 or early 2010, at the earliest. The stock market, however, may advance six months prior to the recovery.
| Yes | |
|---|---|
| No | |
| Clueless | |
| Maybe spring 2010 |
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the princpal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-11-2009 @ 11:01AM
davidl7082 said...
Investors are not hungry for good news, they are hungry for money from people stupid enough to invest in this market. They are hungry to steal as much as they can from hapless people that actually believe the Wall Street talking heads that promote the "investment" con game.
3-11-2009 @ 11:22AM
Paul said...
Tuesday's 379 point gain will be history by the end of the week. All it takes is one bad earnings report and the bottoms falls out. The DOW index will dip below 6,000 by the end of the month.
3-11-2009 @ 11:39AM
Paul said...
LOL... Obama just gave a little speech on earmark spending.. as soon as he stepped away from the michrophone, the DOW lost ALL of the morning gains! What a fine president we have!
3-11-2009 @ 12:20PM
Alec said...
YOU want good news..the fed no longer exists...
3-11-2009 @ 12:36PM
David Porter said...
OK here is my story,I am one of those people effected by this economy. in nov 2005 i fell off a roof,cut off cirlucation
to my body, had to lean to walk and talk again - it took years. after I paid the bills for a year off of savings -the money was gone - lost everything - finances went up in smoke. im fine now - but Now I am in a trap I could use a little help getting out from under.I cannot pay my bills, i do not make enough money- the only calls I get are bill collectors,friends are gone - no jobs.The only thing I can do in this economy is take a bath - eat -have a place to live, just who are these responsible people, the President talks about. I cannot pay bills - I make to little- stocks rebound on the slightest good news, I went to Fort Lauderdale - to try and find work, its just as bad, I want to work - I havent been able to do anything for my children for years, I dont have the money or a job, Im 49 and begining to feel hopeless, just where are these jobs! If there are people ike me all across this country,God help the United States - oh and by the way - i make so little money I can barely jet to a job - let alone look for one. If you know of anything my email is davesandgo@aol.com - Contractor, Site Manager, estomator, no trouble with the law, no drugs, aolchol - Please i need a Job. I will take anything - I need to stay active.
3-11-2009 @ 1:01PM
Badabing said...
The stock market will do anything based on any news because Wall St is clueless.
The good times are over, and we are waking up to reality. Less jobs, less pay. Frugality. In fact I read a good blog about the new frugality at thegoodfella.com called Lets get Ready to Humble. Check it out -it woke me up a little.
3-11-2009 @ 1:15PM
jackisbackprt4 said...
Now if only BoA can put out a positive report like Citi did yesterday that should indeed make positive rally and despite the horrible management that went on there as a result of its corrupt leadership. The institution shouldn't fail for the actions of people.
3-11-2009 @ 1:20PM
cindy said...
What rally? Just a small correction people taking some profit. In order to have a rally we need to change today's policies in Washington and until that happens this market will stay approx right where it is if it doesn't look for a new low that is. When Washington says it will tax the investor they mean it so who would invest any serious money with that attitude? This will take years to fix not months.
3-11-2009 @ 1:23PM
jackisbackprt4 said...
Any positive or upward activity at the DOW is a rally, regardless of whether or not it resulted from a correction or some other type of activity-its still a rally.
3-11-2009 @ 1:31PM
Paul said...
There is nothing wrong with the average person investing in the markets. You have to be conservative and NOT put all your funds in stocks. Diversification and LONG TERM is the key. Day traders and short sighted investors are pinning their hopes on buying low and riding the stocks up then selling off quickly. The problem is, the markets are top heavy with this class of investor! In a bull market this works but, in a bear market and economically challenged times, it gets messy.
3-11-2009 @ 1:44PM
e.krabs said...
I'd feel a lot better about the Dow point gains if the volatility wasn't so high and the pop wasn't based on a mere leaked internal memo....
Suffice to say, even if the market is indeed spring-loaded (great metaphor by the way) then it is still a fragile spring.
As a bull, I'd love to be wrong about this, but that's just how I see it right now. But I voted "clueless" because I simply do not know what will happen next....
3-11-2009 @ 1:47PM
Sarah said...
Why would people not invest or even in their 401k at all time lows, based on a poor economy? They were the same ones who bought at all time highs and lost all or most of it....you don't have a choice or could do the money market. 401k is like free money on two counts, less taxes you pay and any contribution from the employer. If you look at the companies in some of the funds they're really good ones....so people are learning that they will make less and have less....they will still be forced to work at these companies. And because of this, the companies profits should be higher. It's not like the companies are all service sector and recreational. On this note, my only concern is executives getting paid too much, taking away from their investors.
3-11-2009 @ 1:51PM
wongtpa said...
Obama's economy has more to give up before we have any significant rally. Look for big losses later this week!
3-11-2009 @ 2:50PM
finely tuned and polished said...
Now forget about... all you have just read enclosed! The market will rally soon. WHY? Many banks are finally loaded within their six-shooters. In other words, dollars from the government, "one way or another" dollars from AIG which they were entitled to. You see as many do not want you to, AIG insured many of the loand and sadly, the market ran out of chairs in the " musicial chair" game of buying and selling this junk. How much? About 10 million loans, in lest than 29 months!! Sooo now you see, the banks were entitled to the funds due by AIG, but ask yourself this question: " Why such a round about way of doing it"? Maybe also, by being in review and making only 1% additional of your brain to work more, you can find the answers. Did the banks double or even triple dip?? Or are they ready to bring the market down to nothing and BUY BUY BUY....!!
3-11-2009 @ 2:56PM
Peter said...
The elephant in the room is the credibility of whatever ultimate plan the government implements to deal with the toxic assets on the books of our financial institutions. The market new soared on an announcement from one of those banks that clearly represents this concern. Any rally before that determination is beyond suspect.
3-11-2009 @ 8:36PM
william lindblad said...
Well, you posted something that got some attention and IF you look around, you will see what I am talking about. I find this a rather strange observation as there used to be a great deal more intelligent life out here. I also see something in another blog that I mentioned last week regarding the status of company pension funds.
To stay with the blog - yup, it's possible that a bounce is around the corner and it is not based entirely on Citi coming in with black. You have to keep in mind that there is something about charges (and not taking them) in this report. It would rather be a case of the financials showing some degree of strength, however slight. Some good news is in order. It is also possible for me to see a Badger in my back yard (they are not common to the area), but I did.
I can only ponder whether this is a bad or good omen? Let's hope for good as the entire world needs a healthy dose.
I know you need a good laugh - I love the Jon and Jim controversy. Nothing like one comedian picking on another. I tink (no mistake)(arte Johnson)
anyone looking for good picks should listen to both of them.
5-12-2009 @ 12:12AM
markwaugh417 said...
The basic thing nobody asks is why do people take drugs of any sort? Why do we have these accessories to normal living to live? I mean, is there something wrong with society that's making us so pressurized, that we cannot live without guarding ourselves against it?
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