Pepsi is still the choice of a new generation

Still, that mark-down gives strong indications of being overdone, mostly on investor skittishness about the North American market's beverage and snack revenue, where volumes were hurt by substantial price hikes; investors somehow forgot about Pepsi's strong international business, which nevertheless should result in overall 4-7% revenue growth in FY 2009. The First Call FY 2009/FY 2010 EPS estimates for PEP are $3.67 to $4.00.

Moreover, the company has successfully positioned itself in the health and sports drink segment with its Gatorade and Aquafina brands, and Tropicana is still the standard in branded, mass-appeal orange juice. Meanwhile, Doritos and Fritos are practically a part of the U.S. popular culture, and the big three carbonated beverages -- Pepsi, Mountain Dew, and Slice -- will continue to be star performers.

Further, the namesake Pepsi drink is, arguably, the world's best-known No. 2 product, behind that other carbonated drink, which Pepsi executives never want people to mention. Pepsi has a sweeter, non-bitter taste compared to the others, and has built a legion of fans who will order a different category refreshment, if that other drink is the only one available from a vendor. That suggests Pepsi will be around for awhile. So will the company's earnings.

Stock Analysis: Pepsi is a moderate-risk stock. Consider buying a 25% position in PEP now; then buy another 25% in three months, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your PEP position in the first half of 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $27.

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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.