Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) at $8.75. Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) at $1.40. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) at $4.75. General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) at $1.90. Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) at $1.75. These numbers don't seem possible, but they are. If you're tempted to buy any of them or many other big names (like American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) or Ambac or Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH)) that seem to be selling for prices never imagined, here's some advice: Know that you don't know enough to make an intelligent investment decision.
That doesn't mean you shouldn't buy them. In fact, I think some of these will rally once the economy turns and make investors a lot of money. The problem is, I don't know which ones are going to make it. And the ones that don't, that go out of business before the good news happens, leave investors in their common stock with nothing but bad memories and no money. But if you're going to venture into these mine fields, there are few things you should do.
The first thing to do is your due diligence, just as you would in any other investment. Then realize that no matter how wonderful the numbers look (some of these stocks are selling at less than 10% of book value and are still profitable), that the numbers are no good for any future calculations. That's because the future just ain't what it used to be. In fact, we're so far from knowing the future that you can call it the great unknown, with a bias toward that no matter what happens, things will only getting worse.
Then you need to have great restraint because the numbers will scream that many of these stocks are screaming buys, if you only invest by the numbers. But all of us know that WaMu screamed and so did Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and CountryWide. But not in a good kind of scream. They screamed because they were mortally wounded. Many investors couldn't differentiate between the screams, then ended up screaming themselves, mostly at the companies, then themselves.
The restraint comes into play when you decide to actually start buying some of these stocks. The only way to "invest" in them is to buy at least 10 different ones and buy a very limited amount. You want to own Citigroup. 100 shares will cost you $140 plus commissions as of this writing. That's the kind of limitations that will keep you out of trouble.
The truth is that Citi may make it. The CEO just announced that the first 2 months of this year were profitable. But the market says that it doesn't think so. With nationalization being discussed in earnest, and large losses still being taken every month in mortgages and credit cards, the big bank may not make it, at least not in the form it's in now.
Bank of America has a similar story but not quite the same. It hasn't borrowed as much TARP money, and the CEO claims to be finished with government money, with a priority of paying the TARP loan. You can buy 100 shares of BAC for $475 plus commissions. If losses continue to grow, it doesn't matter what the CEO says, the bank won't make it. And no one can know if the mortgage and credit losses will grow. Higher unemployment guarantees they will.
The same is true of GM. You can buy 100 shares of the once mighty auto maker for $190 plus commissions. But there is serious discussion within the company and in Washington that maybe the best thing to do is to let the company go bankrupt with a reorganization plan in place, thus wiping out shareholders but allowing the company to continue to operate and then re-emerge with a healthy balance sheet and freed from legacy obligations. Is that worth a $190 bet? Without new money before the end of March, the company states it's going out business. The auto committee from Washington is visiting GM as this is written. Will it grant more money? Nobody knows. If they do, whether the stock rallies depends on how much and what strings are attached.
Ford is a little different story. It hasn't taken a penny from the government and claims it won't. It has a large amount of cash (which it's burning through), enough to continue running as a company for several months. Is that adequate time to see sales of its newest models leave the dealerships' floors? By the way, Ford is one of the most eco-friendly car companies now, with an emphasis on green driving. Many new models are hybrids, and the company believes its future is in eco-friendly cars and trucks. But has it gotten religion too late? It costs $175 plus commission to buy 100 shares of stock and participate in the recovery or the failure.
AIG is another story. It's sucked in tens of billions of dollars and seems to have an open pipeline for more. That's because its demise would have an adverse domino effect on so many other financial institutions that it can't afford to go out of business. The money from the government isn't free. Each time they put more in, they take more equity out, diluting the current shareholders. Now you can buy 100 shares for $35 plus commissions. This company could be completely owned by the government before it's over simply by continuing to add equity as needed, wiping out current shareholders. In May of 2004, the stock was trading above $70 a share.
You might be able to make an argument that GE is in another class. After all, its stock is trading above $8 a share, quite rich for this group. True, it has a very diverse revenue stream, a huge conglomerate, involved in aircraft engines to television to motion pictures to light bulbs. But it also has GE Financial, the Achilles heel. That division made a lot of mortgages and loans to businesses and individuals. How will those loans compare to ones made by banks and other financials? Probably about the same. They'll have a large percentage of problems which will only get worse if unemployment goes higher. You can buy 100 shares for $875 plus commissions.
You get the picture here. For well under $1,500 you could own at least five to 10 companies that may rebound and give investors a high return. Or they could go to zero. $1,500 is a lot of money to gamble. But if you're going to go for it, make sure you spread your money around to have the best chance of winning. Because with most of these companies, that's what you're doing: gambling.
Please Note: All prices were correct at the time of this writing (March 10).
Ted Allrich is the founder of Allrich Investment Management LLC.










Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-14-2009 @ 9:10AM
Frank C said...
Dear Ted,In the above picture it looks like you are sleeping.I think you might be.You have GE at $8.75...Its $9.62.BAC at $4.75..Its $5.76..C at $1.40..Its $1.78.And a few others..but you get the picture.You posted this on the 14th,which is today.And I might mention that I bought GE on March 4th @ $6.35.So,yes...It's still a good buy,if you keep your eyes open....I find most advisors to be nothing more than touts,and probably would do well at race tracks around the country..Wake Up...The Picture is bad advertising.
3-14-2009 @ 10:28AM
nan said...
Any one know the scoop on ABTG Ambient stock?
3-14-2009 @ 10:50AM
b.borders said...
Ask Jon Stewart he has become an expert in financial advisory. Jon-when are you going to place Barney Frank's "bloody" butt on the GRILL?
3-14-2009 @ 1:59PM
kevin said...
how do you know his butt is bloody
3-14-2009 @ 3:39PM
Velvet said...
Of course now is the time to buy. Put you life savings into the stock market. It is going to go up. Make your broker happy, invest!
3-14-2009 @ 7:33PM
Janette Sawyer said...
The four days was just a trick to reel you in.
3-14-2009 @ 7:41PM
Bobby said...
787 billion Stimulus spending spree
410 billion Omnibus spending spree
3.55 trillion budget spending spree 2010
275 billion irresponsible Homeowner bailout
Pelosi/Reid/Frank/Dodd/Obama Acorn HR 1106 bill
Who really has faith in this?
3-14-2009 @ 7:44PM
Janette Sawyer said...
Who will have the money to invest when they are taking every spare dime to pay for their neighbors house and bills.
3-14-2009 @ 7:47PM
Bobby said...
Just pray that we are just having a nightmare and will wake up and go back and vote again with different choices.
3-15-2009 @ 8:41AM
edwardsuite said...
I HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF CASH. WHTH ALL THIS DEFICIET SPENDING, INFLATION IS GOING TO SKYROCKET, MAKING MY CASH ALMOST WORTHLESS.
I WILL BUY UP SEVERAL OF THESE STOCKS, SELLING AT FIRESALE PRICES.
IF THEY GO BUST, IT PROBABLY WON'T BE AS BAD AS WATCHING MY MONEY SLOWLY BECOME WORTHLESS.
IT IS WORTH THE GAMBLE.
ED
3-15-2009 @ 9:23AM
AJ Sagman said...
These sotocks sound good but I'll stick to my "penny" stocks like reeltime.com (TLTR) that is a movie rental download company at a stick price of 1 cent!!!
3-15-2009 @ 4:17PM
Velvet said...
Would you actually buy stocks based on an AOL article? They can't even get the news straight!
3-16-2009 @ 7:34AM
Dan said...
Why on earth would anyone invest in stocks right now when there are places where you can lend your money and earn a minimum fixed rate of 8% with the potential of earning way more? Yes, you heard that right there is a way to invest and have the benefits of both worlds, High potiential returns plus a guaranteed fixed rate that is 3 to 4 times what you would get with an FDIC insured account. Oh and it provides almost as much security. In fact there is a way to earn an extra 2% on the funds you have in an FDIC insured account without ever even touching it! This investment model addresses the two most important factors in investing.
#1.) Don't lose your principle.
If you lose 50% of your capital it will take a 100% return just to get back to break even. If like many people over the last few years you have lost 75% of your principle it will take a whopping 300% to get back to break even! So the number 1 rule in investing should be to never lose your principal.
#2.) A better return is more important than the amount of principle
If I had two accounts, one with $100K in it that got a return of 4% and one with $50K that got a return of 8% the money earned is not going to be equal. When you factor in compounding the second account way outperforms the first account over time. So using this principle it is easy to see why earning a better return on investment is so important. The trick is to earn the better return without risking the principle. There is a way to do that without having to pay a broker anything. Maybe that is why your broker has not told you about it!
Here it is in a nut shell:
You provide private mortgages to investors who are buying up bank owned properties at pennies on the dollar. Since they are buying them way below current values which are way down right now your investment is secured by tons of equity! There is even a way for those people who are afraid to move their money out of an FDIC insure environment to earn an extra 2% return.
If you want to know more email me at DreamHomes4edu@aol.com