Cramer on BloggingStocks: Don't let this rally fool you

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says economic fundamentals haven't changed enough to make last week's rally a lasting force.

Stocks are the tools to tell the tale, and last week made you want to own stock. The banks showed you they need not be wards of the state, GM (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) acted as if didn't need to be a ward of the state and oil held its own. Drug companies, among the enterprises with the best balance sheets, decided to "give up" and combine in the face of diminishing returns courtesy of changes in governments worldwide, but particularly in the United States, that would impinge on long-term profitability.

Most important, the backtracking of Obama in his position toward business, something that would never be articulated but most surely occurred as the stock market was no longer ignored -- a Bill Clinton moment in a tone-deaf White house -- set a better tone for risk-taking.


This weekend we might have lost the oil prop with no cuts from OPEC. I expect a swift reaction down and a concomitant move down with so many stocks that make up the complex. We could also discover that the Bernanke thrust to moderate the mark-to-market rules to better reflect how portfolios truly stack up will be defeated by a recessive Tim Geithner, who seems as confused as ever about his role, even though his continually adhering acolytes champion his every plan no matter how much it changes. You take those two positives out of the equation, you lose the Chevrons (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take) and the Exxons (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) and you give back the gains of Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), as more surely their bad assets are totally overwhelming their profits without forbearance.

In the larger picture we saw something else happen at the end of the week, a resurgence in the beaten-up consumer staples. That's not a good sign unless it is catch-up, because what we wanted to see was a pickup in the U.S. Steels (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) and in the 3Ms (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take), of which I did not see a meaningful rally. The first was hobbled by covenant and pension worries, the latter by soft markets worldwide. You could insert Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) or Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (Cramer's Take) or Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) (Cramer's Take) or Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take) in that "suspect" rally camp.

I think the resurgence, though, is right. The rally occurred because of these catalysts and because of an exhaustion of sellers. The technicals were more important than the market players are willing to say.

Why is that? Because the substantive turn just doesn't seem to be in the cards. The stimulus program and the mortgage program will create some jobs but won't nearly offset the jobs lost, the mortgage program with its dramatic cut in rates -- a Sheila Bair concept -- is excellent, but I don't know how many people will wend themselves through it.

In the meantime we don't have new equity issuance. The bond issuance has stepped up, but the securitization market needs TALF and that's a wait-and-see prospect. The rest of the world is losing strength by the day, and China is the only engine with nary a freight car trailing behind it. We have not yet heard of the big commercial real estate debacles, and we still have a gigantic inventory of unsold homes. The big public bankruptcies haven't started, and while the rhetoric of the Obama administration has gotten more pro-business, the administration's programs -- so wrong during such an economic period -- continue apace. Those who criticize by watching the market and knowing that below Dow 6000 many of our insurance companies will not be able to pay claims, and pension plans and 401(k)s will become untenable generators of capital, are laughed at or scoffed, with yours truly being the biggest target. The concept of the villainous Jimmy Cramer is hysterical in my eyes, even as much as it is painful.

So, I think there's way too much wrong to make the rally be the lasting force that it is being seen as, but it can allow some points to be made as it creeps toward 8000. That will enable traders and investors to take money out and ready themselves for another decline based on the endlessly deteriorating world economic situation.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Hewlett-Packard.
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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-134.6012,755.86
NASDAQ-20.132,907.10
S&P 500-10.541,341.41

Last updated: February 10, 2012: 01:47 PM

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