Stocks are the tools to tell the tale, and last week made you want to own stock. The banks showed you they need not be wards of the state, GM (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) acted as if didn't need to be a ward of the state and oil held its own. Drug companies, among the enterprises with the best balance sheets, decided to "give up" and combine in the face of diminishing returns courtesy of changes in governments worldwide, but particularly in the United States, that would impinge on long-term profitability.
Most important, the backtracking of Obama in his position toward business, something that would never be articulated but most surely occurred as the stock market was no longer ignored -- a Bill Clinton moment in a tone-deaf White house -- set a better tone for risk-taking.
This weekend we might have lost the oil prop with no cuts from OPEC. I expect a swift reaction down and a concomitant move down with so many stocks that make up the complex. We could also discover that the Bernanke thrust to moderate the mark-to-market rules to better reflect how portfolios truly stack up will be defeated by a recessive Tim Geithner, who seems as confused as ever about his role, even though his continually adhering acolytes champion his every plan no matter how much it changes. You take those two positives out of the equation, you lose the Chevrons (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take) and the Exxons (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) and you give back the gains of Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), as more surely their bad assets are totally overwhelming their profits without forbearance.
In the larger picture we saw something else happen at the end of the week, a resurgence in the beaten-up consumer staples. That's not a good sign unless it is catch-up, because what we wanted to see was a pickup in the U.S. Steels (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) and in the 3Ms (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take), of which I did not see a meaningful rally. The first was hobbled by covenant and pension worries, the latter by soft markets worldwide. You could insert Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) or Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (Cramer's Take) or Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) (Cramer's Take) or Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take) in that "suspect" rally camp.
I think the resurgence, though, is right. The rally occurred because of these catalysts and because of an exhaustion of sellers. The technicals were more important than the market players are willing to say.
Why is that? Because the substantive turn just doesn't seem to be in the cards. The stimulus program and the mortgage program will create some jobs but won't nearly offset the jobs lost, the mortgage program with its dramatic cut in rates -- a Sheila Bair concept -- is excellent, but I don't know how many people will wend themselves through it.
In the meantime we don't have new equity issuance. The bond issuance has stepped up, but the securitization market needs TALF and that's a wait-and-see prospect. The rest of the world is losing strength by the day, and China is the only engine with nary a freight car trailing behind it. We have not yet heard of the big commercial real estate debacles, and we still have a gigantic inventory of unsold homes. The big public bankruptcies haven't started, and while the rhetoric of the Obama administration has gotten more pro-business, the administration's programs -- so wrong during such an economic period -- continue apace. Those who criticize by watching the market and knowing that below Dow 6000 many of our insurance companies will not be able to pay claims, and pension plans and 401(k)s will become untenable generators of capital, are laughed at or scoffed, with yours truly being the biggest target. The concept of the villainous Jimmy Cramer is hysterical in my eyes, even as much as it is painful.
So, I think there's way too much wrong to make the rally be the lasting force that it is being seen as, but it can allow some points to be made as it creeps toward 8000. That will enable traders and investors to take money out and ready themselves for another decline based on the endlessly deteriorating world economic situation.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Hewlett-Packard.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-16-2009 @ 9:14AM
czelbst said...
While it may be appropriate for members of the administration to be optimistic about the financial institutions that have received bailouts, the issues of unemployment, disinflationary housing markets, debt failures and the very real potential for energy prices to escalate dramatically before the end of this year are not being addressed in relation to the economy in general. Accordingly, in my opinion, the prognosis for the stock market in regard to continuing gains is really quite dim and while the markets may enjoy brief rallies, I do not see real opportunities for prolonged gains this year. Frankly, I anticipate that the market will end the year below 5200.
3-16-2009 @ 10:47AM
scheflowrydell1 said...
Mr. Cramer, I don't know who John Stewart thinks he is, didn't he say he was a clown but he advertises as a clown, I think that is an insult to clowns. How dare he decide that the stock market is now a serious matter while he spent the last 8 years demeaning our national leaders. Is the war on terror serious?
3-16-2009 @ 11:29AM
thomas w said...
Mr Cramer, even though i am not a big fan of you(not that you bad or anything, i just don't like your style), but John Stewart has went way out of line with you, and i want you to know that i am with you, he is just a look alike reporter on a look alike news program. all these people just need to get there head out of there butt and stand up for some real responsibilities.
3-16-2009 @ 12:32PM
Steve said...
@ thomas w:
"John Stewart... is just a look alike reporter on a look alike news program."
Thomas, have you ever SEEN the Daily Show???? First of all, it's a comedy show on Comedy Central, not a news show!!!
Second, Jon (not John) Stewart is a comedian/television host/media critic/political satirist -- not a reporter.
3-16-2009 @ 12:42PM
Jeff T. said...
Cramer,
After the Jon Stewart interview NOBODY is listening. You can try to talk down the economy all you want (or talk it up), you are now officially obsolete.
3-16-2009 @ 2:59PM
goplies said...
Don't let Cramer fool you. He is tone deaf and part of the crying down on the economy. Cramer and the partisans would rather the country not do well then be caught wrong on his and their "assessments."
Country should be first and partisanship last.
3-16-2009 @ 3:05PM
Tom said...
New proposed director Citicorp..Let's hope that Mr. Jerry Grundhoffer does a little better than he did with Security Pacific Bank when he ran the Branch system into the ground--caused the Bank to sell to B of A.
Stockholders look at his not so worthy tract record before approving as a director.
Thanks, Tom
3-16-2009 @ 3:57PM
Danny W said...
Trust no one especially this CROOK. they are ALL lying much,much worse is to come these liars are all pumping dead cat bounces.
This is a trading only market and anyone can pick any stock without listening to crooks and liars.
3-16-2009 @ 3:36PM
janicefenton said...
We all need to start buying American made goods. Keep America working. When a person is working, they can pay their mortgage and taxes. I understand protectionism is not the best answer, but it will stop the bleeding. This rosy idea of a global economy might work if the globe was not full of greedy, lying, cheating ba$tard$. We need to remember that most of the globe goes to sleep hungry every night. We cannot depend on our Government to help us. If we cannot resist the foreign made goods, we will all be sleeping in the crates used to import those goods. You are holding the last dollar, don't waste it! The job you save may be your own!
ps I love Jon Steart...at least he admits to selling snake oil. That makes him the most honest man I know.
3-16-2009 @ 3:58PM
normandyridge said...
Please stop quoting KRAMER> He is AWFul. His opinion are usuualyy WRONG.
3-17-2009 @ 9:01PM
kazoo222 said...
Kramer,
i just want you to know we are all hip to the scene.. you know what i mean..
3-18-2009 @ 3:03AM
Allen S. said...
yer all idiots. refer to http:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/wall_street_crash_of_1929
we are almost duplicating the crash of '29 to the month. we will have a sweet rebound till the end of july. then down to record lows.
know yer history....cause it's happening again.... I saved my 401k. did you ? SMACK! WAKE UP ! and i'm just a union factory worker. :) and Cramer i saw your comedy channel interview...you patsy
3-18-2009 @ 8:23AM
Joan McInerney said...
As I continue to focus on your comments along with Noriel Roubini's, it seems to me that you are offering us exactly that which we "need" to hear, as we negotiate the rough waters ahead. I, for one, deeply appreciate the inner strength it must take to step up and assert what seems to me as the obvious: the markets are going to fall below 6,000 and the global economy will continue to unwind. We had better batten down the hatches as we, devoid of choice, roar ahead, at least those of us who continue to think for ourselves. Thank you for all that you try to do. Your humble posture, with regard to your past mistakes, as you see them, has only, in my opinion increased your credibility.
3-18-2009 @ 2:19PM
thomas w said...
@steve :
Thomas, have you ever SEEN the Daily Show???? First of all, it's a comedy show on Comedy Central, not a news show!!!
Second, Jon (not John) Stewart is a comedian/television host/media critic/political satirist -- not a reporter.
Hello Steve i was just trying to be nice by saying that, Jon Stewart he is Wannabe Reporter. in my view
3-18-2009 @ 4:17PM
Danae said...
I have been following the stock market since 1998, reading the WSJ, IBD, Fool.com, Barrons, Bloomburg etc.., and only recently have I discovered the breadth and depth of analysis that comes out of Jim Cramer's mind. The man is astute, prolific beyond belief, and no one has me running to the dictionary/investor encyclopedia the way he does. No, his calls are not 100% accurate, whose are? He has me thinking and growing, smiling and laughing. Thank you Jim, for helping the little investor!