Analyst Douglas Harned of Sanford C. Bernstein chopped his price targets on several defense stocks today, including Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT). "Trends in the defense budget remain the most important driver of defense stocks, and the cash flow outlook is strong for the defense businesses," said Harned in a note to clients.
Harned cut LMT's price target from $104 to $96, but he reiterated an "outperform" rating on the stock. Lockheed Martin remains the analyst's top pick in the defense sector, thanks to its strong overall growth potential and support from its F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. Despite his forecast for a reduction in supplemental defense budgets, Harned expects the F-35 program will remain fully funded.
The positive commentary has helped LMT march higher in today's session, adding more than 4% within the first hour of trading. The equity has bounced back from a sharp decline to reclaim a foothold atop its 10-day moving average, although resistance from a multitude of longer-term trendlines looms overhead.
That F-35 Joint Strike Fighter contract came at a critical time for LMT. The $265-million coup was awarded by the Pentagon just last week, and enthusiasm over the news is helping the stock bounce back from its late-February plunge (which was, as Harned suggests, prompted by concerns over the Obama administration's vow to eliminate wasteful defense spending).
Lockheed Martin has high hopes to live up to on Wall Street, with both investors and analysts firmly entrenched in the bullish camp. During the past 10 days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open 3.29 calls for every put, marking a near-peak of optimistic option-buying activity.
Meanwhile, analysts have awarded the equity seven Strong Buys and three Buys, according to Zacks, compared to just four Holds and one Strong Sell. Plus, LMT's average 12-month price target of $95.53 represents a healthy 56% premium to Friday's close.
As evidenced by the stock's recent sell-off, these lofty expectations leave the stock vulnerable to major downside in the event of any disappointing developments. While LMT is faring well in today's trading, investors should proceed with caution when it comes to this defense stock. The majority of Wall Street is already aboard the bullish bandwagon, which indicates that Lockheed Martin might not have much sideline cash left in the tank to fuel future rallies.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.










